Grupo Mexico (GMEXICOB.MX) fair value

ACCE thesis

Grupo Mexico is the parent of Southern Copper, one of the largest copper producers in the world, and also runs Mexico's largest rail freight operator, Ferromex, plus a zinc and silver business and a large infrastructure arm. The copper mines, most notably Cananea and Buenavista in Sonora and Toquepala and Cuajone in Peru, are low-cost, long-life assets, which is what drives the margins: a 54.2% operating margin and 61.2% gross margin are unusually high for a miner. Revenue grew 37.9% in the latest period, and with a 28.4% ROE the business is converting that growth into returns, while the stock trades at 15.0x trailing and 14.3x forward earnings, a modest multiple for a company with this profile. The obvious question is how durable 37.9% growth is when copper prices are cyclical, so the deeper work should test how much of the step-up came from price versus volume and what the sustaining capex and cost base look like at current metal prices. The score of 90/100 says the fundamentals screen well, but it is a screen, and the setup needs checking against the cycle before anyone leans on it.