4 models fit BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares) and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Silver75
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionBHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares) (BHP)
Fair value (4 models)
$78.95
ACCE price target
$72.60
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $82.90 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $106 since 15 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $77.85 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
1.4% below
+1.4% to fair value
ACCE score
68
out of 100
Analysts
25% buy
8 covering
P/E
20.2x
forward 16.3x
1-year return
+40.8%
Dividend yield
5.10%
BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares) in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
BHP mines and sells iron ore from the Pilbara in Western Australia, copper from Escondida in Chile, and metallurgical coal from Queensland and New South Wales, with its ADRs representing two ordinary shares each. Its structural edge is cost position: the Pilbara's high-grade, low-cost iron ore operations and the scale of its Chilean copper mines let it stay profitable through commodity downturns when smaller producers cannot. The near-term story is copper, where demand from electrification and grid build-out is pulling the mix away from steel-linked iron ore and coal. At 22.0x trailing and 17.2x forward earnings, with 18.3% revenue growth and a 24.0% return on equity, the stock is priced below its trailing multiple on expected earnings, which is the gap worth testing against the iron ore price outlook and copper volume guidance.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings decline amid revenue growth
Earnings fell 9.0% YoY while revenue rose 18.3%, signalling margin compression or one-time charges. Forward P/E of 17.2 assumes recovery; if headwinds persist, valuation is at risk.
moderate
ACCE score deterioration
Score dropped 6 points in 90 days (80 to 74). Quality and Momentum sub-scores remain solid, but the trend warrants monitoring for emerging operational or market headwinds.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue surged 18.3% year over year, demonstrating strong commodity demand and pricing power in FY2026.
Net margin of 16.7% and ROE of 24.0% show BHP converts sales into shareholder returns far more efficiently than peers.
Free cash flow of 11.9 billion dollars funds dividends and debt reduction while trading at a 5.4% FCF yield.
Why it could disappoint
Five year revenue growth averaged just 0.5% annually, suggesting the 18.3% spike may be cyclical rather than structural.
Analyst mean price target of 77.92 dollars sits 10.2% below the current 86.74 dollar share price.
Forward P/E of 17.2x trades in line with the 17.6x sector median, offering no valuation discount for cyclical risk.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 17, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BHP's valuation models land
Price
$77.85
Model fair value
$78.95
Model range
$40.78 to $102
Fair value $78.95
Price $77.85
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.
Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.
+Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
+Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
+Active 13D activist filings and top holders
Compare
Where it sits vs peers
News and Record
Press releases mentioning this company
Recent performance
1 week
-6.5%
1 month
-8.4%
3 months
-7.0%
6 months
-2.5%
YTD
+29.0%
1 year
+40.8%
SEC filings
Recommendation history, last 12 months
Date
Type
New
Previous
Price
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST
Rating
Fairly valued
first publication
$81.87
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST
Fair value
$78.95
$82.90
$81.87
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
ACCE price target
$72.60
$106
$83.29
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$82.90
$84.50
$82.90
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$84.50
$78.57
$86.74
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$78.57
$79.68
$85.22
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$79.68
$78.81
$86.07
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$78.81
$77.19
$84.97
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$77.19
$78.85
$84.95
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST
Fair value
$78.85
$81.08
$87.15
Price
+40.0% · 1Y
Ask anything about BHP
Answered from BHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.
This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 0% of peers
low 11.3x20.2xhigh 20.2x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low 16%24%high 28%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.1%5.1%high 5.6%
Peers
Prices Oct 23, 2026
Company
Price
Fair value
vs fair value
P/E
ROE
Quality
Score
BHPBHP Group Limited American Depositary Shares (Each representing two Ordinary Shares)