Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. Common Stock (REXR) fair value
Real Estate · REIT - Industrial · NYSE · United States
$38.71+6.70%
Market cap $8.9BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 72% above our fair value
Price
$38.71
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$22.55
Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionRexford Industrial Realty Inc. Common Stock (REXR)
Fair value (3 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$30.10
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST; previously $38.00 since 27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $38.71 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
40
out of 100
Analysts
44% buy
18 covering
1-year return
-9.5%
Dividend yield
4.80%
Rexford Industrial Realty Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Rexford Industrial Realty owns and operates infrastructure-light industrial properties concentrated in Southern California's infill logistics markets, leasing warehouse, distribution and light-industrial space to tenants that need to be close to dense urban populations. Its moat is location scarcity: infill industrial land in Los Angeles and Orange County is hard to entitle and replace, which supports rent growth and high property-level margins, with a 76.8% gross margin and 41.6% operating margin in the data. Revenue is shrinking, though, down 1.6%, and ROE is negative at -4.7%, so the earnings base is not yet translating into shareholder returns. The forward P/E of 38.3 prices in a recovery in rents and occupancy that the current top line does not yet show, which is the central question for a deeper look. The name is outside any major index, carries a sub-50 score of 46/100, and the case rests on whether scarce coastal industrial assets can re-accelerate growth from here.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative net margin and ROE
Net margin -39.2% and ROE -4.7% signal the company is unprofitable on a GAAP basis despite strong operating metrics, typical of REITs but worth monitoring given forward P/E of 37.2.
moderate
Revenue decline YoY
Revenue fell 1.6% YoY while earnings rose 28%, suggesting one-time gains or accounting adjustments rather than operational momentum. QoQ growth of only 0.2% reinforces deceleration.
moderate
Insider selling concentration
Last 10 disclosed transactions show $2.81M in sales and $0.00M in buys, indicating net selling pressure from insiders despite modest insider ownership increase.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of $342M supports a 4.1% yield, providing downside protection at current valuations.
Five-year average revenue growth of 16.7% per year demonstrates a strong long-term track record despite recent headwinds.
Conservative debt-to-equity of 0.41 leaves room to refinance or invest through a cycle without financial stress.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue declined 1.6% year-over-year, signaling a sharp reversal from the company's historical growth trajectory.
Forward P/E of 37.2x is expensive relative to the 4.1% free cash flow yield, leaving little margin for error.
Share count rose 6.4% last year while net margin sits at negative 39.2%, diluting existing shareholders without profit growth.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where REXR's valuation models land
Price
$38.71
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$22.55
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
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