2 models fit Stag Industrial Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Near fair value(i)Bronze40
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO, Dividend discount, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionStag Industrial Inc. Common Stock (STAG)
Fair value (2 models)
$35.48
ACCE price target
$34.00
Rating
Fairly valued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST; previously $35.98 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 14:06 CEST.
Price used: $36.43 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
2.7% above
-2.6% to fair value
ACCE score
53
out of 100
Analysts
42% buy
12 covering
P/E
28.0x
forward 41.4x
1-year return
-5.7%
Dividend yield
4.25%
Stag Industrial Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Stag Industrial owns and leases single-tenant industrial buildings, mostly warehouses and distribution facilities in secondary US logistics markets, and it is a REIT with a market cap of about $7.0B. Its edge is a portfolio built around smaller-box, single-tenant assets where replacement supply is thinner than in the big primary hubs, which tends to support rent growth and occupancy through the cycle. Revenue grew 8.1% and the operating margin sits at 37.0%, so the rent roll is converting well, though a 7.0% ROE and a forward P/E near 145 against a trailing 27.9 show that earnings are depressed or distorted by depreciation and per-share accounting, so FFO or AFFO is the metric to check. The score of 54/100 and absence from major indices suggest the market is not yet paying up for the story, which may be the opening if rent spreads and occupancy hold. This merits a deeper look at lease expiry schedules, same-store NOI growth and leverage before any view on valuation.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Score slipping over 90 days
ACCE score fell from 58 to 53 over 90 days, with the Momentum sub-score at 40 and Value at 42. Growth is modest at 8.1% revenue and 3.3% earnings YoY.
moderate
Price above ACCE target
The stock trades 7.1% above the ACCE price target of $34.00, while sitting only 2.7% above the model fair value of $35.48. Forward P/E of 144.9 leans heavily on earnings recovery.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 8.1% year over year and has averaged 11.8% per year over five years, showing sustained demand for STAG's warehouses.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $402M, and the stock offers a 4.3% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is only 3.3%, and return on equity is 7.0%, so the company earns little on the money it deploys.
The stock trades 2.7% above the model fair value of $35.48, and sits 7.1% above the ACCE price target of $34.00.
The forward P/E of 144.9x implies earnings are expected to fall sharply, and the diluted share count rose 3.2% last year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where STAG's valuation models land
Price
$36.43
Model fair value
$35.48
Model range
$34.37 to $36.59
Fair value $35.48
Price $36.43
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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