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NKE
ACCE-researched

Nike Inc. Common Stock (NKE) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories · NYSE · United States
$37.30-2.66%
Market cap $55.4BNext earnings 2026-10-01Updated Oct 18, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 49% above our fair value
Price
$37.30
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$25.04
Model range
$21.72 to $28.86
Fair value $25.04
Price $37.30
5 models fit Nike Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 4 of 5 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionNike Inc. Common Stock (NKE)
Fair value (5 models)
$25.04
ACCE price target
$38.90
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $25.54 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $38.00 since 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $37.30 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
49.0% above
-32.9% to fair value
ACCE score
37
out of 100
Analysts
24% buy
42 covering
P/E
17.9x
forward 23.4x
1-year return
-46.5%
Dividend yield
4.28%

Nike Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Nike sells Air Jordan, Air Force 1, Pegasus running shoes and Dri-FIT apparel, and its brand still supports a 43.4% gross margin. Revenue fell 4.3% and operating margin is down to 7.9%. The forward PE of 21.0 sits above the trailing 16.7, which implies earnings are expected to fall. The internal score is 41/100, so the name needs a clear turnaround case to justify deeper work.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Revenue and earnings decline
    Revenue down 4.3% YoY and 3.2% over 5 years; earnings down 2.1% YoY. Growth trajectory is negative despite recent QoQ bounce.
  • high
    ACCE score collapse
    Score fell 10 points in 90 days (51 to 41). Momentum subscore at 17/100 signals deteriorating business quality signals.
  • moderate
    High short interest
    9.0% short interest is material. Combined with score deterioration and insider selling ($0.37M vs $0.00M buys), suggests skepticism among informed parties.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-09 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Nike generates strong returns on equity of 21.6% and invested capital of 11.2%, showing efficient capital deployment.
  • The stock trades at 16.7x trailing P/E while forward P/E of 20.5x exceeds the sector median of 17.4x, suggesting modest premium valuation.
  • Nike delivered an 11.6% earnings surprise on latest results and offers a 4.7% dividend yield at current prices.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue has declined 4.3% year over year and 3.2% on a five year average, showing persistent top line weakness.
  • Consensus fair value of $25.54 sits 26.4% below the current share price of $34.71, indicating significant overvaluation.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where NKE's valuation models land
Price
$37.30
Model fair value
$25.04
Model range
$21.72 to $28.86
Fair value $25.04
Price $37.30
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish24% buy · 42 covering analysts
● Strong buy 9● Buy 1● Hold 25● Sell 3● Strong sell 4
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
0 buys · 3 sells
Since Apr 14, 2026, 2 members
Average delay
15 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.5%
1 month
+3.5%
3 months
-10.6%
6 months
-16.5%
YTD
-41.5%
1 year
-46.5%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$37.13
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$38.90$38.00$37.13
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.89$25.54$35.35
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.54$25.06$34.74
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$25.06$24.77$33.87
3 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$24.77$26.21$32.85
2 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.21$26.63$35.40
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$38.00first publication$35.51
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.63$27.37$35.51
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$27.37$26.91$37.05

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth7Value54Quality69Momentum17Total37
Valuation
Trailing P/E
17.9x
Forward P/E
23.4x
PEG
no data
P/B
3.60x
EV / Revenue
1.2x
Book value/sh
$10.26
Enterprise value
$55.6B
Profitability
ROE
21.6%
FCF yield
3.84%
ROIC
9.8%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.74
Dividend yield
4.28%
Beta
1.10

Price

-46.0% · 1Y

Ask anything about NKE

Answered from Nike Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 10.6x17.9xhigh 27.0x
ROEbetter than 17% of peers
low 12%22%high 43%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0%4.3%high 4.3%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
NKE Nike Inc. Common Stock$37.30$2549% above17.9x21.6%6937
ADS.DE Adidas€159.00€10453% above20.2x24.3%6555
7936.T ASICS Corporation¥4834.00--27.0x42.2%8973
DECK Deckers Outdoor Corporation Common Stock$85.28$12733% below10.7x42.6%8958
ONON On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares$34.00$2535% above21.7x23.9%8061
CROX Crocs Inc. Common Stock$120.99$29559% below10.6x42.3%8071
BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc Ordinary Shares$33.68$379% below15.2x12.4%7954

Sector report card

Where NKE ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 15, 2026
    Woodlawn High School Basketball Scores $50,000 Investment from Hibbett and Nike in Birmingham
  • PR Newswire•Oct 6, 2026
    A2Z Cust2Mate Completes Acquisition of In-Store Retail Media Business Hedia
  • PR Newswire•Sep 15, 2026
    SCIENCE IN SPORT NAMED OFFICIAL PERFORMANCE FUEL AND HYDRATION PARTNER FOR NIKE AFTER DARK TOUR
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-14
View on SEC →
Oct 2
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-08-31
View on SEC →
Oct 1
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR