3 models fit On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze53
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionOn Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares (ONON)
Fair value (3 models)
$18.64
ACCE price target
$40.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $25.17 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $33.00 since 27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $32.51 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
74.4% above
-42.7% to fair value
ACCE score
61
out of 100
Analysts
81% buy
31 covering
P/E
22.7x
forward 15.8x
1-year return
-24.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
On Holding sells performance running shoes built around its CloudTec cushioning system, along with apparel and accessories, mainly through its own stores, e-commerce and wholesale partners. Its advantage is a premium brand that commands a 64.8% gross margin, well above most footwear peers, with the design and direct-to-consumer model keeping that pricing power intact. Revenue is growing 13.5% and the company earns a 23.9% return on equity, so the business is compounding at a healthy clip. The shares trade at 23.7 times trailing earnings and 17.3 times forward earnings, a gap that implies the market expects profit growth to accelerate. Operating margin of 14.0% is the number to test, since it leaves room for expansion but has not yet shown that the growth is converting into earnings at the rate the gross margin suggests.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Valuation premium to model
Forward P/E of 15.8 is reasonable, but current P/E of 23.4 reflects near-term earnings beat already priced in.
moderate
Operating margin weakness
Operating margin of 14.0% lags gross margin of 64.8%, suggesting SG&A or distribution costs are elevated. ACCE M-score of 38 flags this as a relative weak point.
moderate
High short interest
Short interest at 11.1% is material for a $11.7B cap stock. Combined with valuation premium, suggests skeptics are positioned for pullback.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
On Holding has delivered 47.9% average annual revenue growth over five years, demonstrating sustained execution in a competitive premium running market.
The company generates strong returns with 23.9% ROE and 12.3% net margins while maintaining a conservative 0.36 debt-to-equity ratio.
Analyst consensus targets $43.50, implying 24.0% upside, with 81% of analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue growth has slowed to 13.5% year over year, a sharp deceleration from historical 47.9% rates that raises sustainability questions.
Forward P/E of 15.8x implies perpetual cash flow growth of only 8.7%, below historical rates and below the 5.2% risk-free rate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 11, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where ONON's valuation models land
Price
$32.51
Model fair value
$18.64
Model range
$12.27 to $31.20
Fair value $18.64
Price $32.51
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores