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CROX
ACCE-researched

Crocs Inc. Common Stock (CROX) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Footwear & Accessories · NASDAQ · United States
$119.23-1.45%
Market cap $5.8BNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 60% below our fair value
Price
$119.23
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$295
Model range
$251 to $339
Fair value $295
Price $119
2 models fit Crocs Inc. Common Stock and they agree: 2 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Gold80
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionCrocs Inc. Common Stock (CROX)
Fair value (2 models)
$295
ACCE price target
$135
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $249 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $129 since 22 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $119 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
59.6% below
+147.5% to fair value
ACCE score
71
out of 100
Analysts
53% buy
15 covering
P/E
10.6x
forward 8.2x
1-year return
+40.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Crocs Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Crocs designs and sells the Crocs clog and Hey Dude casual footwear, with the bulk of revenue coming from direct-to-consumer channels and wholesale accounts. The brand's moat rests on a 57.5% gross margin and a 24.2% operating margin, which are unusually high for a footwear company and point to real pricing power and strong brand loyalty. Revenue growth has slowed to 2.6%, so the investment case depends on margins holding and cash being returned to shareholders rather than on top-line expansion. At 10.9 times trailing earnings and 8.2 times forward earnings, the stock trades well below what the margins would normally command, and a 42.3% return on equity suggests the capital base is being used efficiently. The question for a portfolio manager is whether the market is pricing in a fade in Hey Dude's contribution or a structural decline in the Crocs clog, and that is worth checking against the latest segment disclosures before going further.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Earnings decline despite revenue growth
    EPS down 4.2% YoY while revenue grew 2.6%. Margin compression or cost headwinds warrant scrutiny.
  • moderate
    Elevated leverage with cyclical exposure
    Debt/Equity 1.22 in consumer discretionary sector. FCF $534M provides cushion but limits flexibility in downturn.
  • moderate
    Insider selling outpaces buying 7:1
    Sales $4.15M vs buys $0.61M over last 10 disclosures. Pattern suggests insiders not confident at current levels.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The company generated $534M in free cash flow with a 9.7% yield, while repurchasing 9.4% of shares outstanding last year.
  • Net margin of 14.6% and ROE of 42.3% demonstrate strong profitability and capital efficiency despite modest revenue growth.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue growth has decelerated to 2.6% year over year, well below the 4.4% five-year average, signaling momentum loss.
  • ROIC of negative 2.6% shows the company destroys shareholder value on incremental capital deployed despite high reported returns.
  • Debt to equity of 1.22 leaves limited financial flexibility if the core Crocs brand faces a consumer spending downturn.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where CROX's valuation models land
Price
$119.23
Model fair value
$295
Model range
$251 to $339
Fair value $295
Price $119
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed53% buy · 15 covering analysts
● Strong buy 5● Buy 3● Hold 6● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-3.2%
1 month
-4.3%
3 months
-11.5%
6 months
+16.5%
YTD
+39.4%
1 year
+40.0%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$120
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$295$249$120
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$135$129$123
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$249$217$115
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$217$222$118
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$222$226$123
22 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$226$233$122
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$233$221$123
12 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$221$225$109
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$225$231$114

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth19Value95Quality80Momentum90Total71
Valuation
Trailing P/E
10.6x
Forward P/E
8.2x
PEG
1.39
P/B
4.32x
EV / Revenue
1.8x
Book value/sh
$28.77
Enterprise value
$7.4B
Profitability
ROE
42.3%
FCF yield
11.36%
ROIC
-2.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.25
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.56

Member of

ACCE Fair Value Leaders

Price

+44.0% · 1Y

Ask anything about CROX

Answered from Crocs Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 10.6x10.6xhigh 31.4x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low -23%42%high 42%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 2.4%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
CROX Crocs Inc. Common Stock$119.23$29560% below10.6x42.3%8071
BIRK Birkenstock Holding plc Ordinary Shares$33.68$379% below15.2x12.4%7954
8050.T Seiko Group Corporation¥9800.00--31.4x15.4%7276
PUM.DE Puma€25.10----22.6%3439
7762.T Citizen Watch Co., Ltd.¥2213.00--17.5x10.9%4867
SHOO Steven Madden Ltd. Common Stock$44.42$2954% above21.6x15.9%6172
ONON On Holding AG Class A Ordinary Shares$34.00$2535% above21.7x23.9%8061

Sector report card

Where CROX ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 8, 2026
    Crocs, Inc. Announces Conference Call to Review Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Results
  • Business Wire•Oct 6, 2026
    BARK x Crocs Collection Expands Beyond Pet Crocs Shoes, Starting With a Dog Bed You Can Personalize with Jibbitz™ Charm-Inspired Plushes
  • PR Newswire•Sep 4, 2026
    Crocs, Inc. to Present at Piper Sandler's 2026 Growth Frontiers Conference
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 24
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-22
View on SEC →
Sep 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-15
View on SEC →
Sep 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-15
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR