2 models fit Noble Corporation plc A Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionNoble Corporation plc A Ordinary Shares (NE)
Fair value (2 models)
$35.19
ACCE price target
$40.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $37.19 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $47.70 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
35.6% above
-26.2% to fair value
ACCE score
46
out of 100
Analysts
45% buy
11 covering
P/E
46.8x
forward 21.0x
1-year return
+56.7%
Dividend yield
4.54%
Noble Corporation plc A Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Noble Corporation runs offshore drilling rigs, including drillships and jackup and semisubmersible units, leased to oil and gas operators for deepwater and harsh-environment work. The business is a fleet operator, so its moat rests on high-spec rig count, contract backlog and the scarcity of newbuild capacity rather than on proprietary technology. Revenue is down 16.3% year on year, and ROE of 3.3% shows little return on the capital tied up in the fleet, so the near-term story depends on day rates and contract coverage improving faster than top-line decline. The trailing P/E of 45.6 compresses to a forward 21.0, which says earnings are expected to recover sharply, but the score of 48/100 and the absence of any index membership suggest the market is not yet paying for that recovery. The stock merits a deeper look to test whether utilisation and contracted day rates on the high-spec fleet are rising enough to close the gap between a 10.7% operating margin and what the forward multiple implies.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue contracting sharply
Revenue is down 16.3% year on year and 8.4% quarter on quarter, while the stock trades 35.6% above the model fair value of $35.19.
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Insiders sold $11.65M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought nothing. Insiders hold 20.7% of the shares.
moderate
Score down 12 points in 90 days
The ACCE score fell from 60 to 48 over 90 days. The growth sub-score is weakest at 27, and the stock trades 19.3% above the ACCE price target of $40.00.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 13.1% of the float, a meaningful bet against the shares given the recent revenue decline.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow of $432M over the last twelve months gives the stock a 6.3% free cash flow yield at today's price.
Analysts' mean price target of $48.55 sits 10.1% above the current share price, and 45% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
A 4.7% dividend yield pays income while investors wait for the business to recover.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 16.3% year over year, and the risk file ties this to rigs rolling off contracts.
The stock trades 35.6% above the model fair value of $35.19, and the consensus of valuation models sits 35.6% below the share price.
Return on equity of 3.3% and return on invested capital of 2.7% show little return on the capital the business uses.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 26, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where NE's valuation models land
Price
$47.70
Model fair value
$35.19
Model range
$29.45 to $40.92
Fair value $35.19
Price $47.70
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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