3 models fit Helmerich & Payne Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionHelmerich & Payne Inc. Common Stock (HP)
Fair value (3 models)
$30.51
ACCE price target
$36.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $29.13 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $38.95 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
27.7% above
-21.7% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
47% buy
17 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 35.6x
1-year return
+51.6%
Dividend yield
2.61%
Helmerich & Payne Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Helmerich & Payne owns and operates land drilling rigs, including its FlexRig fleet, and provides drilling services to oil and gas producers, mainly in US onshore basins. The case rests on the rig-count cycle and the company's reputation for high-spec, efficient rigs, but the current numbers do not yet show that advantage in the P&L. Revenue is shrinking slightly (-0.6%), operating margin is thin at 5.1% against a 31.8% gross margin, and ROE is negative at -4.6%, so the earnings base is not doing much for shareholders today. The forward P/E of 35.6 against a trailing P/E that is not meaningful means the market is pricing a sharp earnings recovery that has to come from higher US drilling activity or a better pricing cycle for FlexRigs. Our composite score of 42/100 is weak, and the name needs evidence of margin expansion and rig utilization gains before it earns a deeper look.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Negative net margin and ROE
Net margin is -3.4% and ROE is -4.6%, with earnings down 98.8% year over year. Trailing P/E reads 0.0, so the stock rests on forward estimates (35.6x).
moderate
Insider selling, no buying
Insiders sold $11.17M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought nothing. Insider ownership is only 3.8%.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest stands at 10.4% of float, which signals meaningful bearish positioning against the stock.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months came to $117M, a sign the business still turns operations into cash.
Analysts' mean price target of $45.13 sits 16.5% above the current share price.
The dividend yield of 2.5% pays shareholders while the company works through its losses.
Why it could disappoint
The company reported a net margin of -3.4%, so it is losing money on each dollar of revenue.
The latest earnings per share came in at -0.11 against 0.11 expected, a miss of -200.0%.
A forward P/E of 35.6x prices in a strong recovery, which the recent losses and falling revenue do not yet support.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 18, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where HP's valuation models land
Price
$38.95
Model fair value
$30.51
Model range
$25.35 to $40.44
Fair value $30.51
Price $38.95
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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