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MRSH
ACCE-researched

Marsh Common Stock (MRSH) fair value

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers · NYSE · United States
$197.48-0.90%
Market cap $95.1BNext earnings 2026-10-15Updated Oct 18, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 63% above our fair value
Price
$197.48
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$121
Model range
$77.75 to $138
Fair value $121
Price $197
4 models fit Marsh Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver68
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionMarsh Common Stock (MRSH)
Fair value (4 models)
$121
ACCE price target
$207
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $175 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $205 since 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 10:18 CEST.
Price used: $197 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
62.9% above
-38.6% to fair value
ACCE score
70
out of 100
Analysts
30% buy
23 covering
P/E
22.8x
forward 15.0x
1-year return
+5.0%
Dividend yield
1.98%

Marsh Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Marsh (MRSH) is a global insurance broker that places commercial and personal coverage for clients and earns commissions and fees on it, with its Marsh McLennan Agency unit focused on middle-market firms. The structural case rests on scale and recurring fee income: the business earns steady revenue from renewals and risk advisory work that holds up through soft insurance cycles. Revenue growth of 8.1% and a 27.2% return on equity sit alongside an 18.4% operating margin, which is solid for a broker with a 44.1% gross margin. At a trailing P/E of 22.5 against a forward P/E of 15.0, the market is pricing in meaningful earnings growth, so the question for the PM is whether that expansion is credible. Worth a deeper look if you want exposure to insurance pricing and brokerage fee durability, but the 60/100 score and absence from major indices suggest the case needs more work before it earns a position.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Valuation stretched vs model
    MRSH trades 62.9% above the model fair value of $121.23, and EV/EBITDA is 16.3 against a forward P/E of 15.0, so the price already prices in a lot of growth.
  • moderate
    Leverage elevated
    Debt/Equity of 1.42 is high for a broker, though free cash flow of $5.0B gives room to service it.
  • moderate
    Insider selling without buys
    Insiders sold $8.21M across the last 10 disclosed transactions and bought nothing, a modest but one-directional signal.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $5.0B, giving the company real cash to fund growth and buybacks.
  • Return on equity of 25.9% and a 14.2% net margin show the business turns shareholder capital into profit efficiently.
  • The forward P/E of 15.0x sits well below the sector median of 11.8x only in name, and analysts' mean target of $202.52 implies upside from here.
Why it could disappoint
  • The stock trades 62.9% above the model fair value of $121.23, so the price already assumes more than the consensus models support.
  • Debt to equity of 1.42 leaves less room to absorb a downturn or fund acquisitions without taking on more borrowing.
  • Return on invested capital of 9.3% is modest, and revenue growth of 6.2% trails the 9.4% five-year average, so momentum is slowing.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where MRSH's valuation models land
Price
$197.48
Model fair value
$121
Model range
$77.75 to $138
Fair value $121
Price $197
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish30% buy · 23 covering analysts
● Strong buy 5● Buy 2● Hold 15● Sell 1● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
0 buys · 6 sells
Since Aug 24, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
8 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+4.8%
1 month
+15.9%
3 months
+9.3%
6 months
+16.1%
YTD
+6.4%
1 year
+5.0%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 10:18 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$188
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$207$205$188
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$122$175$188
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$175$170$187
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$170$174$177
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$174$106$177
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$106$109$169
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$205first publication$175
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$109$112$177
13 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$112$111$177

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth60Value65Quality80Momentum76Total70
Valuation
Trailing P/E
22.8x
Forward P/E
15.0x
PEG
1.50
P/B
5.36x
EV / Revenue
4.6x
Book value/sh
$30.87
Enterprise value
$118.0B
Profitability
ROE
27.2%
FCF yield
5.26%
ROIC
9.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.42
Dividend yield
1.98%
Beta
0.58

Price

+5.9% · 1Y

Ask anything about MRSH

Answered from Marsh Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 67% of peers
low 16.2x22.8xhigh 61.5x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low 7%27%high 45%
Div yieldbetter than 83% of peers
low 0.6%2.0%high 2.2%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
MRSH Marsh Common Stock$197.48$12163% above22.8x27.2%8070
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Common Stock$270.98$116134% above44.9x6.7%6762
AON Aon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland)$306.80$20252% above16.2x44.7%7852
WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares$332.18$21058% above20.6x19.8%7562
BRO Brown & Brown Inc. Common Stock$74.49$6024% above23.5x10.0%7471
ERIE Erie Indemnity Company Class A Common Stock$256.80$14380% above23.0x24.8%7048
RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock$44.49$2391% above61.5x22.1%6452

Sector report card

Where MRSH ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 15, 2026
    Rapid AI Capability Development Is Creating Opportunities for Those Companies With Leadership That Translate Productivity Gains Into Business Value
  • Business Wire•Oct 13, 2026
    Marsh Appoints Nicole Delimitros President, National Employee Health and Benefits, Marsh Agency
  • Business Wire•Oct 2, 2026
    Marsh Completes Acquisition of Accel Holdings
15 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 15
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 15
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 3
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-02
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR