3 models fit Erie Indemnity Company Class A Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver62
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionErie Indemnity Company Class A Common Stock (ERIE)
Fair value (3 models)
$143
ACCE price target
$187
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $133 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $254 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, Dividend discount, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
77.4% above
-43.6% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
1 covering
P/E
23.0x
forward 26.7x
1-year return
-22.2%
Dividend yield
2.24%
Erie Indemnity Company Class A Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Erie Indemnity earns a management fee for administering property and casualty policies written by its affiliate, Erie Insurance Exchange, so its revenue comes from a percentage of the affiliate's premiums rather than from underwriting risk itself. That fee structure produces a 24.8% return on equity and a 19.1% operating margin on $12.7B of market capitalization, with the moat resting on a long-standing, captive distribution relationship that is hard for a competitor to replicate. Revenue growth of 2.8% is modest, and the composite score of 43/100 reflects that the stock is not screening well on growth or momentum. At 22.1x trailing and 17.4x forward earnings, the multiple has compressed enough to make the business worth a closer look, but the case depends on whether top-line growth can accelerate beyond the current pace, which is the central question for a deeper review.