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AON
ACCE-researched

Aon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland) (AON) fair value

Financial Services · Insurance Brokers · NYSE · United States
$303.52-1.07%
Market cap $65.1BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 51% above our fair value
Price
$303.52
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$202
Model range
$133 to $232
Fair value $202
Price $304
4 models fit Aon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland) and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze45
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland) (AON)
Fair value (4 models)
$202
ACCE price target
$325
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $239 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $365 since 11 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $304 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
50.5% above
-33.6% to fair value
ACCE score
52
out of 100
Analysts
62% buy
21 covering
P/E
16.2x
forward 13.5x
1-year return
-11.1%
Dividend yield
1.04%

Aon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland) in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Aon sells insurance brokerage and risk advisory services, placing commercial coverage for corporate clients and running reinsurance, retirement and health benefits consulting alongside it. The moat is in the placement relationships and data: a broker that already runs a client's program and benefits data has high switching costs, and the 44.7% ROE with a 23.5% operating margin reflects how little capital the model needs. Revenue growth of 2.2% is slow, so the investment case rests on margin and capital returns rather than top-line acceleration, and the score of 48 out of 100 tells you the screen sees more to question than to like. At 16.1x trailing and 13.5x forward earnings the stock is priced below its own growth profile only if organic growth picks up, which is the question worth testing in a deeper look at the segment disclosures and retention data.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    ACCE score collapse
    Score fell 16 points in 90 days (63→47). Growth module dropped to 19/100, signalling deceleration concerns despite +17.1% QoQ bounce.
  • high
    Earnings decline vs revenue growth
    Revenue +2.2% YoY but earnings -3.0% YoY. Margin compression or cost inflation eroding profitability despite top-line stability.
  • moderate
    Elevated leverage
    Debt/Equity 1.63 is material for a financial services broker. Limits financial flexibility if revenue growth remains sluggish.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Aon generates exceptional returns on equity of 44.7% while maintaining a healthy 22.3% net margin.
  • The company produced $3.2B in free cash flow last year, yielding 5.5% at current prices.
  • Analyst consensus targets $362.21 per share, implying 32.4% upside from current levels.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue growth slowed to 2.2% year over year, down sharply from the 11.2% five-year average.
  • Debt to equity of 1.63 leaves limited financial flexibility if commercial insurance rates soften further.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AON's valuation models land
Price
$303.52
Model fair value
$202
Model range
$133 to $232
Fair value $202
Price $304
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish62% buy · 21 covering analysts
● Strong buy 9● Buy 4● Hold 5● Sell 2● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+3.7%
1 month
+7.8%
3 months
-16.1%
6 months
-5.5%
YTD
-14.0%
1 year
-11.1%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $AON ACCE Score Jumps 10 Points to 69 - What Drove It
    Aon's ACCE composite score moved from 59 to 69. Here's what the data says about quality, value, and earnings momentum behind the upgrade.
    2026-06-22

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTFair value$202$239$297
21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$297
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$325$365$293
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$239$216$273
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$216$219$269
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$219$222$278
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$222$224$278
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$224$217$296
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$217$226$305
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$226$229$303

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth19Value69Quality78Momentum40Total52
Valuation
Trailing P/E
16.2x
Forward P/E
13.5x
PEG
2.21
P/B
6.22x
EV / Revenue
4.2x
Book value/sh
$45.27
Enterprise value
$74.3B
Profitability
ROE
44.7%
FCF yield
4.94%
ROIC
11.6%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.73
Dividend yield
1.04%
Beta
0.69

Price

-10.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about AON

Answered from Aon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 16.2x16.2xhigh 61.5x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 7%45%high 45%
Div yieldbetter than 33% of peers
low 0.6%1.0%high 2.2%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AON Aon plc Class A Ordinary Shares (Ireland)$303.52$20251% above16.2x44.7%7852
AJG Arthur J. Gallagher & Co. Common Stock$270.98$116134% above44.9x6.7%6762
MRSH Marsh Common Stock$199.27$12164% above22.8x27.2%8070
WTW Willis Towers Watson Public Limited Company Ordinary Shares$332.18$21058% above20.6x19.8%7562
BRO Brown & Brown Inc. Common Stock$74.49$6024% above23.5x10.0%7471
ERIE Erie Indemnity Company Class A Common Stock$256.80$14380% above23.0x24.8%7048
RYAN Ryan Specialty Holdings Inc. Class A Common Stock$44.49$2391% above61.5x22.1%6452

Sector report card

Where AON ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    Aon and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expand war risk insurance facility for Ukraine
  • PR Newswire•Oct 13, 2026
    Aon and the European Bank for Reconstruction and Development expand war risk insurance facility for Ukraine
  • PR Newswire•Oct 9, 2026
    Aon Announces Third-Quarter 2026 Earnings Release and Conference Call Date
14 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 22
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-18
View on SEC →
Sep 17
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-14
View on SEC →
Sep 11
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-09-11
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR