4 models fit Mosaic Company (The) Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze49
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionMosaic Company (The) Common Stock (MOS)
Fair value (4 models)
$34.01
ACCE price target
$19.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $32.93 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $17.84 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
47.5% below
+90.6% to fair value
ACCE score
34
out of 100
Analysts
40% buy
20 covering
1-year return
-39.8%
Dividend yield
5.10%
Mosaic Company (The) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Mosaic produces phosphate and potash fertilizers, mining the rock and potash at its Florida and Canadian operations and selling through its Mosaic Fertilizantes arm in Brazil. The structural case rests on owning some of the few low-cost phosphate reserves in the world, which gives it a cost position most fertilizer peers cannot match, and on potash supply being concentrated among a handful of producers. The current picture is weaker: revenue fell 6.0% year on year, the gross margin is only 11.2%, and the operating margin is essentially break-even at -0.1%, so the earnings base that a forward multiple of 22.7 is built on is thin and falling. The name is worth a deeper look only if you think phosphate and potash pricing is nearing a trough and that the cost advantage can convert that recovery into margin. Our score of 34 out of 100 reflects a business that is currently earning little, not one that has fallen out of favour on fundamentals alone.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
Free cash flow is -$534.6M against a $5.7B market cap, and revenue fell 6.0% year over year. Cash burn at this scale is hard to ignore.
high
Losses and thin margins
Operating margin is -0.1%, net margin -5.2%, and ROE -5.1%. The 239.5% earnings jump comes off a depressed base, not from a healthy profit trend.
moderate
Elevated short interest
Short interest sits at 12.5% of float while insiders disclosed $0.51M in sales and no buys over the last ten filings. Bears are positioned against the stock.
moderate
Score falling over 90 days
The ACCE score dropped from 44 to 38 over 90 days, with quality at 27 and momentum at 17. The trend in the fundamentals is moving the wrong way.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Consensus model fair value of $34.01 sits far above the current price, with all four valuation models in agreement.
The stock trades at 11.4x forward earnings against a sector median of 17.1x, a meaningful discount.
Latest quarterly earnings per share beat expectations by 44.4%, with 0.13 reported against 0.09 expected.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$535M, so the business is consuming cash.
Revenue fell 6.0% year over year, well below its 5-year average growth of 6.8% per year.
Return on invested capital of 2.6% is low, and net margin of -5.2% shows the company is currently losing money.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MOS's valuation models land
Price
$17.84
Model fair value
$34.01
Model range
$14.45 to $44.29
Fair value $34.01
Price $17.84
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores