2 models fit Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Bronze48
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionScotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) Common Stock (SMG)
Fair value (2 models)
$34.65
ACCE price target
$54.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $33.53 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $59.29 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
71.1% above
-41.6% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
8 covering
P/E
21.2x
forward 12.6x
1-year return
+7.0%
Dividend yield
4.46%
Scotts Miracle-Gro Company (The) Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Scotts Miracle-Gro sells consumer lawn and garden products under brands like Miracle-Gro, Scotts, Ortho and Roundup, along with the Hawthorne hydroponics business. Its position rests on brand recognition and shelf space at the big-box retailers, which gives it pricing power and a gross margin of 32.2%. The near-term case depends on lawn and garden volumes recovering from a weak consumer and a destocked retail channel, and on the company's cost cuts holding up as that happens. Revenue growth is only 1.1% and ROE is -47.6%, so the score of 43/100 reflects a business that is not yet compounding. The stock trades at 12.9x forward earnings against 19.4x trailing, which implies the market expects earnings to rebound, so the deeper look should test whether the 16.8% operating margin is durable or a trough-cycle figure.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Shrinking earnings and revenue
Earnings fell 25.5% year over year while revenue grew only 9.8%, and revenue has contracted at a 3.7% five-year CAGR. Operating margin of 16.8% sits against a net margin of just 2.1%.
high
Insider selling outweighs buying
The last 10 disclosed insider trades total $6.64M in sales against $0.10M in purchases. Short interest is 11.9% of float.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 16 points, from 59 to 43, over 90 days, with the growth sub-score at 19 and quality at 39.
moderate
Negative equity and return on equity
Debt/Equity is -6.66 and ROE is -47.6%, so reported equity is negative and return metrics are not meaningful as a measure of capital efficiency.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $274M, a sizeable cash pile for a company of this scale.
Analysts are bullish, with 6 of 8 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean price target sits well above the share price.
The latest quarter beat expectations, with earnings per share of 2.82 against 2.53 expected, a surprise of +11.5%.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 71.1% above the model fair value of $34.65, so the price already assumes much more than the models support.
Revenue shrank on a five-year average of -3.7% per year, and the latest year-over-year gain of +9.8% is too small to reverse that trend.
Return on equity of -47.6% and debt to equity of -6.66 signal a balance sheet that has been stretched by leverage, with equity now negative.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SMG's valuation models land
Price
$59.29
Model fair value
$34.65
Model range
$23.44 to $45.85
Fair value $34.65
Price $59.29
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores