3 models fit ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver64
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares (ICL)
Fair value (3 models)
$6.25
ACCE price target
$4.70
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $6.34 since 29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $4.77 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
23.6% below
+31.0% to fair value
ACCE score
56
out of 100
Analysts
0% buy
4 covering
P/E
19.9x
forward 11.0x
1-year return
-27.0%
Dividend yield
4.36%
ICL Group Ltd. Ordinary Shares in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
ICL Group makes potash, phosphate fertilizers, specialty plant nutrients, and flame retardants and specialty chemicals for industrial customers, with potash and phosphate salts sitting on a mine-and-plant base that is hard to replicate. Its structural edge is resource depth in the Dead Sea and Israel's phosphate operations, which give it low-cost potash in a market where supply is concentrated among a few producers. Revenue grew 16.5% over the trailing period, and gross margin of 30.6% and operating margin of 12.5% show the company converting that growth into profit, though the 5.6% ROE says shareholders are earning little on the equity base. The forward P/E of 55.6 against a trailing 20.7 implies earnings are expected to fall sharply, so the bull case rests on a fertilizer and specialty-chemical cycle turn that the current numbers do not yet show. Worth a deeper look if you want exposure to potash pricing and can underwrite that earnings gap.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Forward P/E well above trailing
Trailing P/E is 20.7 but forward P/E is 55.6, implying the earnings growth in the trailing number may not carry forward. Worth checking the earnings outlook before sizing.
moderate
Thin return on equity
ROE of 5.6% and net margin of 4.0% leave little cushion if earnings growth of 51.6% reverses. Profitability is modest relative to the 0.46 debt-to-equity load.
moderate
Price sits above ACCE target
The stock trades 1.5% above the ACCE price target of $4.70, though it remains 23.6% below the model fair value of $6.25.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 16.5% year over year, well ahead of its 7.2% average annual pace over five years.
Consensus model fair value of $6.25 sits 23.6% above the current price of $4.77.
The dividend yields 4.1%, and the stock trades at a 20.7x trailing P/E, lower than its forward multiple.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is only 2.1% and return on equity 5.6%, weak returns on the capital the business uses.
The forward P/E of 55.6x is far above the sector median of 17.6x, leaving little room for error.
Only 0 of 4 analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and the analyst mean target of $5.74 is 17.6% above the price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 11, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ICL's valuation models land
Price
$4.77
Model fair value
$6.25
Model range
$4.27 to $9.53
Fair value $6.25
Price $4.77
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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