4 models fit Corteva Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze55
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCorteva Inc. Common Stock (CTVA)
Fair value (4 models)
$27.04
ACCE price target
$13.40
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $26.70 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $13.50 since 3 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $12.45 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
54.0% below
+117.2% to fair value
ACCE score
38
out of 100
Analysts
75% buy
12 covering
P/E
7.7x
forward 11.0x
1-year return
-80.4%
Dividend yield
5.60%
Corteva Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Corteva sells crop protection chemicals and hybrid seed under brands including Pioneer corn and soybean genetics, Crop Protection products, and biological inputs, making it one of the largest seed and crop chemical businesses globally. Its moat rests on proprietary germplasm and a long-running distribution network with growers, which supports a 38.7% gross margin, though the 4.3% ROE shows that very little of that profitability is reaching shareholders. Revenue is shrinking (down 1.2%), so the case depends on margin resilience and a recovery in farm input demand rather than volume growth. At 8.2 times trailing earnings and 11.8 times forward, the stock is priced for a cyclical trough, but the composite score of 41/100 and the absence from any index suggest the market is not yet convinced the earnings base is stabilizing. This is worth a deeper look only if the portfolio manager is willing to underwrite a cyclical turn in agricultural pricing, not as a growth or quality compounder.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
ACCE score collapse
Score fell 28 points in 90 days (67 to 39). Quality and Momentum components especially weak (51 and 17), signaling deterioration in fundamentals or market sentiment.
high
Earnings decline with stalled revenue
Earnings down 9.9% YoY while revenue flat to negative (−1.2% YoY, −0.1% 5y CAGR). QoQ +30.1% appears seasonal; underlying trend is weak.
moderate
Weak profitability metrics
ROE of 4.3% and net margin 2.8% are thin for a $8.8B company. Operating margin 12.8% is reasonable, but bottom-line conversion is poor.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Stock trades at 8.2x trailing earnings, well below the 17.6x sector median, suggesting deep undervaluation.
Free cash flow yield of 31.9% is extraordinarily high, indicating the market prices in severe distress.
Consensus fair value of $27.41 implies 107% upside, with 80% of analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue has declined 1.2% year over year and 0.1% on a 5-year average, showing structural stagnation.
Return on equity of 4.3% and return on invested capital of 3.4% are far below the cost of capital.
Net margin of only 2.8% leaves little room for error in a commodity business facing pricing pressure.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 11, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where CTVA's valuation models land
Price
$12.45
Model fair value
$27.04
Model range
$12.13 to $44.76
Fair value $27.04
Price $12.45
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores