Only one of our models could value this stock with confidence, so use it as a guide.
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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. Common Stock (MITT)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$5.50
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $5.44 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
62
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
6 covering
P/E
7.2x
forward 6.4x
1-year return
-26.8%
Dividend yield
17.26%
TPG Mortgage Investment Trust Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
MITT is a mortgage REIT whose income comes from holding residential mortgage loans and agency and non-agency mortgage securities, financed largely through repurchase agreements, with a book that tilts toward non-agency residential credit. The moat here is thin: a REIT of this size competes on funding costs, underwriting discipline and the ability to rotate between asset classes, and it has no structural edge over larger peers. The near-term story is revenue recovery, with trailing revenue growth of 53.7% suggesting interest income is rebounding as the book reprices. At a 7.4 trailing and 6.4 forward P/E on a roughly $176M market cap, the stock looks cheap against its earnings, but an 8.1% ROE says the market is pricing the risk of book-value erosion and dividend sustainability, not just the multiple. Worth a deeper look mainly to test whether the earnings uplift is durable once funding spreads and credit marks are stress-tested.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Leverage elevated
Debt/Equity of 14.45 is very high, and the balance sheet depends on a mortgage REIT's funding. A small funding squeeze or spread widening would hit equity quickly.
moderate
Earnings falling despite revenue
Revenue grew 53.7% year over year, yet earnings fell 15.5%. Revenue growth is not reaching shareholders as profit, which warrants a closer look at the costs behind it.
moderate
Momentum score weak
The momentum component scores 17 out of 100, the weakest of the four sub-scores, even though the overall score rose from 51 to 61 over 90 days.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was $60M, and the stock's free cash flow yield stands at 33.3%.
The stock trades at 4.6x forward earnings and pays a 17.1% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is just 0.5%, far too low to show the company earns real value on the money it deploys.
Debt stands at 14.45 times equity, a heavy leverage load that leaves little room for error if earnings weaken.
The latest quarter missed expectations, with earnings per share of 0.24 against 0.26 expected, and the diluted share count rose 5.3%.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where MITT's valuation models land
Price
$5.44
Model fair valueConfidence: medium
$3.13
Model
Fair value
Upside
Dividend discount
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
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