2 models fit Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAres Commercial Real Estate Corporation Common Stock (ACRE)
Fair value (2 models)
$2.08
ACCE price target
$3.60
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $2.03 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $3.35 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Dividend discount and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
61.4% above
-38.0% to fair value
ACCE score
44
out of 100
Analysts
13% buy
8 covering
1-year return
-28.6%
Dividend yield
18.40%
Ares Commercial Real Estate Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ares Commercial Real Estate is a mortgage REIT that originates and holds senior floating-rate loans on transitional commercial properties, mostly office, multifamily and industrial, with a smaller book of construction and preferred equity. Its edge is the Ares platform behind it: the manager's origination, underwriting and workout capacity across real estate credit, which is what a small externally managed lender needs when the loan book is under stress. The near-term story is credit, not growth, since revenue fell 58.8% and return on equity is -0.9%, so the question is whether the office and multifamily exposure can be resolved without further write-downs eroding book value. At a 7.3x forward P/E with a 33.5% operating margin, the market is pricing in meaningful loss risk, and that is the part worth testing loan by loan before anything else.