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MCRI

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. Common Stock (MCRI) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Resorts & Casinos · NASDAQ · United States
$112.68-0.72%
Market cap $2.0BNext earnings 2026-10-27Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 45% above our fair value
Price
$112.68
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$77.93
Model range
$60.61 to $89.98
Fair value $77.93
Price $113
4 models fit Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver61
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionMonarch Casino & Resort Inc. Common Stock (MCRI)
Fair value (4 models)
$77.93
ACCE price target
$118
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $89.16 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $113 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
44.6% above
-30.8% to fair value
ACCE score
70
out of 100
Analysts
17% buy
6 covering
P/E
18.2x
forward 16.9x
1-year return
+21.2%
Dividend yield
1.06%

Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Monarch Casino & Resort runs the Atlantis Casino Resort in Reno and the Monarch Casino in Black Hawk, Colorado, with a smaller footprint in Biloxi, and it earns most of its revenue from slot and table gaming plus hotel and food and beverage at the Reno property. The moat is local: the Atlantis is one of the few large-scale, well-capitalized resorts in northern Nevada, and the company carries no net debt, which lets it fund its own expansion. Revenue growth of 4.2% and a 27.4% operating margin are the figures to check, since they show a business still compounding cash without leaning on leverage. The near-term driver is the Atlantis expansion and room upgrades, which management can fund from operating cash flow. At 18.2 times trailing and 16.9 times forward earnings, with a 20.5% ROE, the stock is priced for steady execution rather than a re-rating, so the question for the team is whether the Reno market and Colorado regional gaming hold up at current pricing.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Score down eight points
    ACCE score fell from 82 to 74 over 90 days, with growth at 56 and value at 67. Revenue growth slowed to 4.2% YoY against a 24.2% five-year CAGR.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 15, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $128M, so the business generates real cash well beyond its needs.
  • Debt is very light at 0.05 times equity, leaving the company little exposed if the casino market turns down.
  • The average analyst price target of $126.50 sits 10.3% above the current share price of $114.69.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue grew just 4.2% over the last year, far below its 24.2% yearly average over five years.
  • Only 17% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, meaning just one of six does so.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where MCRI's valuation models land
Price
$112.68
Model fair value
$77.93
Model range
$60.61 to $89.98
Fair value $77.93
Price $113
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish17% buy · 6 covering analysts
● Strong buy 1● Buy 0● Hold 5● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
0 buys · 1 sell
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-0.8%
1 month
-4.2%
3 months
-5.7%
6 months
-2.0%
YTD
+17.7%
1 year
+21.2%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$114
21 Oct 2026, 12:04 CESTFair value$77.93$89.16$114
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$89.16$102$114
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$118first publication$114
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$102$99.63$118
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$99.63$101$117
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$101$102$121
14 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$102$105$122
6 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$105$104$122
3 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$104$107$118

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth56Value67Quality95Momentum63Total70
Valuation
Trailing P/E
18.2x
Forward P/E
16.9x
PEG
1.07
P/B
3.65x
EV / Revenue
3.5x
Book value/sh
$32.18
Enterprise value
$2.0B
Profitability
ROE
20.5%
FCF yield
6.33%
ROIC
14.8%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.05
Dividend yield
1.06%
Beta
1.41

Price

+22.9% · 1Y

Ask anything about MCRI

Answered from Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0x18.2xhigh 24.8x
ROEbetter than 83% of peers
low -2157%21%high 26%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%1.1%high 2.8%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
MCRI Monarch Casino & Resort Inc. Common Stock$112.68$7845% above18.2x20.5%9570
PENN PENN Entertainment Inc. Common Stock$15.46----37.6%2640
HGV Hilton Grand Vacations Inc. Common Stock $37.08$2362% above21.1x11.5%3841
MLCO Melco Resorts & Entertainment Limited American Depositary Shares$3.96--6.3x-2157.4%3549
SKIS-B.ST SkiStar AB (publ)kr 177.20--22.0x14.8%6661
CIRSA.MC Cirsa Enterprises€17.84€181% below24.8x25.9%6982
VAC Marriott Vacations Worldwide Corporation Common Stock$112.93----14.7%4262

Sector report card

Where MCRI ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 7, 2026
    Monarch Casino & Resort to Report 2026 Third Quarter Results After Market Close on October 27
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 1, 2026
    Atlantis Casino Resort Spa Earns Eight Gold Awards in 2026 Best of Sierra Nevada
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 21, 2026
    “Mike & Molly” Star Billy Gardell Brings His Stand-Up Comedy to Atlantis Casino Resort Spa October 3
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
24 filings of 37
September 2026
Sep 21
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-16
View on SEC →
July 2026
Jul 28
10-QQuarterly reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
Jul 21
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-07-20
View on SEC →
21 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR