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HLT
ACCE-researched

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Common Stock (HLT) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging · NYSE · United States
$349.63-2.36%
Market cap $78.7BNext earnings 2026-10-27Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 352% above our fair value
Price
$349.63
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $77.31
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionHilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Common Stock (HLT)
Fair value (4 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$315
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $350 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
52
out of 100
Analysts
62% buy
29 covering
P/E
51.9x
forward 33.5x
1-year return
+30.6%
Dividend yield
0.17%

Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Hilton operates a portfolio of 24 hotel brands spanning economy to luxury segments, generating revenue primarily through franchise fees, management contracts, and owned properties rather than room sales. The company's asset-light model, where franchisees and third-party operators bear capital expenditure, creates high-margin recurring income streams that are largely insulated from cyclical downturns. Unit growth remains the core lever: Hilton added 192,000 rooms in 2023 and maintains a pipeline of 500,000+ rooms under development, with particular strength in emerging markets and the upper-midscale segment where franchise economics are most attractive. At a forward PE of 31.2x against 63% operating margins and a 79% gross margin, the valuation reflects confidence in the pipeline's conversion, though near-term revenue growth of 2.5% suggests the market is pricing in execution risk or macro caution. The spread between current valuation and historical trading ranges leaves limited margin for disappointment on unit growth acceleration or RevPAR trends.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Valuation premium to model
    Stock at $326.56 trades 3.7% above ACCE fair value of $315.00. Forward P/E of 31.2 and EV/EBITDA of 27.8 are elevated for lodging sector.
  • high
    Score deterioration
    ACCE score fell 10 points in 90 days (60 to 50). Growth component (G:39) and Value component (V:27) are both weak.
  • moderate
    ROE near zero
    Return on equity at 0.0% despite 31% net margin and $1.4B FCF suggests capital structure or asset base issues warrant scrutiny.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Hilton's 31.0% net margin and 5-year revenue growth of 11.1% annually show a highly profitable, consistently expanding business.
  • The company generated $1.4B in free cash flow last twelve months while shrinking share count 3.8%, funding shareholder returns.
  • 61% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean price target implying 8.1% upside from current levels.
Why it could disappoint
  • Year-over-year revenue growth slowed to just 2.5%, suggesting the business is decelerating sharply from its historical 11.1% pace.
  • Negative 2.29 debt-to-equity ratio and zero ROE indicate the balance sheet is equity-negative and capital is not generating returns.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where HLT's valuation models land
Price
$349.63
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $77.31
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish62% buy · 29 covering analysts
● Strong buy 14● Buy 4● Hold 10● Sell 1● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
1 buy · 0 sells
Since Jun 15, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
17 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.3%
1 month
+13.8%
3 months
+7.6%
6 months
+4.2%
YTD
+21.7%
1 year
+30.6%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$112$114$319
19 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$315first publication$306
11 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$114$118$307
7 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$118$119$311
2 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$119$121$316
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$121$123$322
25 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$123$122$328
23 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$122$124$326
20 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$124$123$329
17 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$123$130$326

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth39Value24Quality62Momentum83Total52
Valuation
Trailing P/E
51.9x
Forward P/E
33.5x
PEG
3.73
P/B
277.41x
EV / Revenue
6.6x
Book value/sh
$-27.93
Enterprise value
$82.2B
Profitability
ROE
0.0%
FCF yield
2.38%
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
-2.43
Dividend yield
0.17%
Beta
1.10

Price

+30.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about HLT

Answered from Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 17% of peers
low 34.2x51.9xhigh 213.1x
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low 0%0%high 38%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.2%0.2%high 4.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Common Stock $349.63--51.9x0.0%6252
MAR Marriott International Class A Common Stock$396.80$130206% above41.8x14.5%7260
IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share)$167.78$55206% above36.3x0.0%5954
IHG.L InterContinental Hotels Group PLC$165.70$51225% above34.2x0.0%5953
H Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A Common Stock$176.96$76133% above213.1x2.2%5449
HTHT H World Group Limited American Depositary Shares$46.31$3534% above34.5x38.1%7955
INDHOTEL.NS The Indian Hotels Company Limited₹782.30--50.3x16.5%8667

Sector report card

Where HLT ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 7, 2026
    /DISREGARD RELEASE: IHG Owners Association/
  • Business Wire•Sep 30, 2026
    Hilton Announces Third Quarter 2026 Earnings Release Date
  • Business Wire•Sep 29, 2026
    The Great Rebalance: Hilton's 2027 Trends Report Reveals Why Travelers Are Embracing Good ‘Ish’ Over Perfection
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
Oct 1
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-30
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR