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IHG
ACCE-researched

Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share) (IHG) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging · NYSE · United States
$162.40-3.21%
Market cap $24.5BNext earnings 2026-08-11Updated Oct 21, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 197% above our fair value
Price
$162.40
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$54.75
Model range
$49.78 to $58.88
Fair value $54.75
Price $162
3 models fit Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share) and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionIntercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share) (IHG)
Fair value (3 models)
$54.75
ACCE price target
$150
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $54.10 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $151 since 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $162 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
196.6% above
-66.3% to fair value
ACCE score
54
out of 100
Analysts
29% buy
7 covering
P/E
36.3x
forward 22.3x
1-year return
+32.5%
Dividend yield
1.13%

Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share) in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

InterContinental Hotels Group is an asset-light hotel owner and franchisor whose brands include InterContinental, Kimpton, Holiday Inn, Holiday Inn Express, Crowne Plaza and Staybridge, with its revenue coming mainly from management and franchise fees rather than owned real estate. That model produces a 61.0% gross margin and a 25.1% operating margin, and it lets the company grow its room count through partners' capital rather than its own balance sheet. Revenue growth of 5.6% is respectable for a mature lodging name, and the forward P/E of 23.6 against a trailing 33.9 implies the market expects earnings to recover and expand. The reported ROE of 0.0% is not meaningful here and should not be read as evidence of poor returns, so the case rests on margins and growth instead. Its score of 54/100 and absence from major index memberships mean the stock has not yet earned a place on the screen, so a deeper look should start with fee growth per room and pipeline conversion.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings decline amid valuation premium
    Earnings fell 5.4% YoY while forward P/E sits at 23.7 and current P/E at 34.1. Growth deceleration in a cyclical sector warrants caution on multiple sustainability.
  • high
    Extreme EV/EBITDA multiple
    EV/EBITDA of 114.3 is exceptionally high for lodging.
  • moderate
    ACCE score deterioration
    Score dropped 4 points to 53/100 over 90 days. Valuation component (V:41) and Growth component (G:28) are both weak relative to Quality (Q:59).
  • moderate
    ROE stalled at zero
    ROE of 0.0% indicates no shareholder value creation despite $914M FCF and 61% gross margin. Capital efficiency has flat-lined.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 12, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Five-year revenue growth of 10.2% annually far outpaces current 5.6% growth, suggesting IHG is in a temporary slowdown with room to re-accelerate.
  • Strong 13.4% net margin and $914M free cash flow support aggressive 4.5% share buybacks that enhance per-share value.
  • Negative 1.69 debt-to-equity ratio means the balance sheet is net cash, eliminating financial distress risk and enabling continued shareholder returns.
Why it could disappoint
  • Zero return on equity in the latest period signals capital is not generating profits, raising questions about reinvestment quality.
  • Latest earnings missed expectations by 100%, with analysts targeting 7.4% downside from current $160.68 share price.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where IHG's valuation models land
Price
$162.40
Model fair value
$54.75
Model range
$49.78 to $58.88
Fair value $54.75
Price $162
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish29% buy · 7 covering analysts
● Strong buy 2● Buy 0● Hold 1● Sell 2● Strong sell 2
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
1 buy · 0 sells
Since May 7, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
1 day
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-3.2%
1 month
+4.0%
3 months
+4.0%
6 months
+11.0%
YTD
+15.3%
1 year
+32.5%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$171
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTFair value$54.75$54.10$171
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$150$151$168
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.10$77.84$160
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$77.84$75.31$161
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$75.31$78.36$162
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$78.36$80.17$158
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$80.17$78.63$158
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$151first publication$156
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$78.63$80.68$154

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth28Value40Quality59Momentum90Total54
Valuation
Trailing P/E
36.3x
Forward P/E
22.3x
PEG
1.27
P/B
25.89x
EV / Revenue
4.8x
Book value/sh
$-3.32
Enterprise value
$25.7B
Profitability
ROE
0.0%
FCF yield
3.55%
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
-1.69
Dividend yield
1.13%
Beta
1.03

Price

+30.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about IHG

Answered from Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 67% of peers
low 34.2x36.3xhigh 213.1x
ROEbetter than 33% of peers
low 0%0%high 38%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.2%1.1%high 4.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share)$162.40$55197% above36.3x0.0%5954
IHG.L InterContinental Hotels Group PLC$165.70$51225% above34.2x0.0%5953
H Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A Common Stock$176.96$76133% above213.1x2.2%5449
HTHT H World Group Limited American Depositary Shares$46.31$3534% above34.5x38.1%7955
INDHOTEL.NS The Indian Hotels Company Limited₹782.30--50.3x16.5%8667
AC.PA Accor€46.04€3056% above39.1x8.0%4747
HLT Hilton Worldwide Holdings Inc. Common Stock $358.07--51.9x0.0%6252

Sector report card

Where IHG ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 7, 2026
    /DISREGARD RELEASE: IHG Owners Association/
  • Business Wire•Oct 1, 2026
    Hotel Indigo Raleigh Opens Following $36 Million Transformation of Downtown Landmark
  • Business Wire•Oct 1, 2026
    Chase Introduces New IHG One Rewards Premier Select Credit Card, Plus Updates Across Entire IHG One Rewards Card Portfolio
6 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 16
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 16
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 2
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-10-02
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR