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HTHT
ACCE-researched

H World Group Limited American Depositary Shares (HTHT) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Lodging · NASDAQ · United States
$46.23-0.17%
Market cap $14.6BNext earnings 2026-11-16Updated Oct 18, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 34% above our fair value
Price
$46.23
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$34.60
Model range
$17.64 to $49.60
Fair value $34.60
Price $46.23
4 models fit H World Group Limited American Depositary Shares and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze46
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionH World Group Limited American Depositary Shares (HTHT)
Fair value (4 models)
$34.60
ACCE price target
$49.50
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $48.54 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $48.00 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $46.23 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
33.6% above
-25.1% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
18 covering
P/E
34.5x
forward 14.5x
1-year return
+19.5%
Dividend yield
4.69%

H World Group Limited American Depositary Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

H World Group runs a portfolio of hotel brands across China, including the mid-scale Hanting and the upscale Atour, along with Steigenberger and other European and Asian properties acquired over the past decade. The case rests on its asset-light franchise and management model, which lets it grow room count without tying up much capital, and on the scale it has built in China's branded lodging market. Revenue growth of 10.8% and an operating margin of 31.1% show the model is still converting growth into profit, and a 38.1% return on equity points to efficient use of capital. The stock trades at 33.0 times trailing earnings but only 13.9 times forward earnings, so the investment question is whether that gap between trailing and expected profit closes as projected. Score of 55/100 and no index membership mean this is a name to examine further before any position is weighed.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings decline amid revenue growth
    Revenue up 10.8% YoY but earnings down 1.0%. Margin compression or one-time charges warrant investigation.
  • high
    High leverage with debt/equity 2.40
    Debt-to-equity ratio of 2.40 is elevated for cyclical lodging. Vulnerable to economic slowdown or refinancing stress.
  • moderate
    Valuation disconnect
    Current P/E 33.0 vs forward P/E 13.9 implies sharp earnings recovery expected. High execution risk if guidance misses.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Management has delivered 22.2% average annual revenue growth over five years while maintaining an 18.9% net margin.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue grew 10.8% year over year but earnings growth was nearly flat, signaling margin compression and demand weakness.
  • Debt to equity of 2.40 is elevated, limiting financial flexibility if consumer spending in China continues to soften.
  • The current share price implies only 4.7% annual cash flow growth over the next five years, leaving little room for disappointment.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 16, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where HTHT's valuation models land
Price
$46.23
Model fair value
$34.60
Model range
$17.64 to $49.60
Fair value $34.60
Price $46.23
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 18 covering analysts
● Strong buy 15● Buy 3● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
-0.6%
1 month
+8.1%
3 months
+14.2%
6 months
-10.7%
YTD
-1.7%
1 year
+19.5%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$46.50
18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTFair value$34.60$48.54$46.50
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$49.50$48.00$46.50
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$48.54$54.14$44.55
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.14$48.39$42.67
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$48.39$54.30$280
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.30$56.18$280
30 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$56.18$54.85$290
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$54.85$49.76$282
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$48.00first publication$42.00

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value56Quality79Momentum45Total55
Valuation
Trailing P/E
34.5x
Forward P/E
14.5x
PEG
no data
P/B
6.42x
EV / Revenue
4.1x
Book value/sh
¥6.68
Enterprise value
$16.4B
Profitability
ROE
38.1%
FCF yield
7.61%
ROIC
8.3%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
2.82
Dividend yield
4.69%
Beta
0.12

Price

+19.7% · 1Y

Ask anything about HTHT

Answered from H World Group Limited American Depositary Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 83% of peers
low 34.2x34.5xhigh 213.1x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 0%38%high 38%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.3%4.7%high 4.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
HTHT H World Group Limited American Depositary Shares$46.23$3534% above34.5x38.1%7955
H Hyatt Hotels Corporation Class A Common Stock$176.96$76133% above213.1x2.2%5449
INDHOTEL.NS The Indian Hotels Company Limited₹782.30--50.3x16.5%8667
AC.PA Accor€46.04€3056% above39.1x8.0%4747
IHG.L InterContinental Hotels Group PLC$165.70$51225% above34.2x0.0%5953
IHG Intercontinental Hotels Group American Depositary Shares (Each representing one Ordinary Share)$167.78$55206% above36.3x0.0%5954
WTB.L Whitbread£25.81--71.7x1.8%4542

Sector report card

Where HTHT ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 16, 2026
    H World Group Limited Announces Completion of CNY3.35 Billion Offering of CNY-denominated Senior Bonds
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 9, 2026
    H World Group Limited Announces Pricing of CNY3.35 Billion CNY-denominated Senior Bonds
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 4, 2026
    H World Group Limited Announces Proposed Offering of CNY-denominated Bonds
5 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
30 filings of 40
September 2026
Sep 29
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-26
View on SEC →
Sep 23
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-06-30
View on SEC →
Sep 16
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-16
View on SEC →
27 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR