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FMX
ACCE-researched

Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. Common Stock (FMX) fair value

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers · NYSE · United States
$128.52-0.40%
Market cap $44.0BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 21, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 80% above our fair value
Price
$128.52
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$71.27
Model range
$54.19 to $98.36
Fair value $71.27
Price $129
3 models fit Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver61
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionFomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. Common Stock (FMX)
Fair value (3 models)
$71.27
ACCE price target
$128
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $79.54 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $129 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
80.3% above
-44.5% to fair value
ACCE score
70
out of 100
Analysts
47% buy
15 covering
P/E
9.2x
forward 89.3x
1-year return
+33.1%
Dividend yield
3.54%

Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

FMX is the holding company behind FEMSA's beverage and retail operations, and its core is the Coca-Cola bottling franchise across Mexico and much of Latin America, supplemented by the OXXO convenience store chain. The structural case rests on the bottling franchise's scale and route density, which are hard to replicate, and on OXXO's footprint, which gives the group a retail distribution network alongside its beverage volumes. Revenue growth of 9.3% and a 40.5% gross margin point to a business still compounding at the top line while keeping pricing power. Against that, the trailing P/E of 8.6 sits well below the forward P/E of 23.7, a gap that the data alone does not explain, so the earnings path needs checking before the low trailing multiple is taken at face value. With a 14.8% ROE and a $41.4B market cap, the stock is worth a deeper look mainly to reconcile that multiple gap and to test whether reported earnings reflect the underlying trend.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Forward P/E distortion
    Forward P/E of 89.3 vs trailing 8.5 signals earnings estimate collapse or one-time current-year benefit. Reconcile before relying on valuation.
  • high
    Revenue CAGR cliff
    5-year revenue CAGR of -37.6% with recent QoQ -5.6% decline contradicts +9.3% YoY growth. Structural headwind or accounting shift requires clarification.
  • moderate
    Insider selling pressure
    Sales of $2.80M vs buys of $0.25M over last 10 disclosures show net selling by insiders despite stock near fair value.
  • moderate
    Score deterioration
    ACCE score fell 4 points to 67 in 90 days. Quality subscore at 56 is notably weak relative to other dimensions.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 16, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Recent earnings beat 13.4% expectations and revenue grew 9.3% year over year, signaling operational momentum.
  • Stock trades at 8.5x trailing P/E with 5.0% dividend yield and 4.0% free cash flow yield.
  • Aggressive share buybacks cut diluted count 81.3% last year, concentrating value for remaining shareholders.
Why it could disappoint
  • Five year revenue declined 37.6% annually on average, showing severe long term contraction.
  • ROIC of 3.2% and net margin of 3.6% are weak, while debt to equity of 1.05 limits financial flexibility.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where FMX's valuation models land
Price
$128.52
Model fair value
$71.27
Model range
$54.19 to $98.36
Fair value $71.27
Price $129
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed47% buy · 15 covering analysts
● Strong buy 5● Buy 2● Hold 7● Sell 1● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
1 buy · 0 sells
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
Do politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.6%
1 month
+7.4%
3 months
+1.1%
6 months
+13.0%
YTD
+27.2%
1 year
+33.1%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$129
21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CESTFair value$71.27$79.54$129
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$79.54$120$121
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$120$123$117
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$123$102$116
27 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$102$104$120
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$104$102$122
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$128first publication$119
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$102$105$119
17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$105$103$122

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth76Value64Quality56Momentum84Total70
Valuation
Trailing P/E
9.2x
Forward P/E
89.3x
PEG
4.73
P/B
3.24x
EV / Revenue
1.0x
Book value/sh
$34.25
Enterprise value
$48.7B
Profitability
ROE
14.8%
FCF yield
3.69%
ROIC
3.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
1.05
Dividend yield
3.54%
Beta
0.18

Price

+34.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about FMX

Answered from Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 9.2x9.2xhigh 20.2x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low 6%15%high 24%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%3.5%high 4.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
FMX Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. Common Stock$128.52$7180% above9.2x14.8%5670
HEIA.AS Heineken€77.90€7110% above18.9x12.1%5967
ABEV Ambev S.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing 1 Common Share)$3.33$417% below17.5x18.4%8477
FEMSAUBD.MX Fomento Economico MexicanoMXN 241.06MXN 15457% above18.7x14.8%6172
STZ Constellation Brands Inc. Common Stock$138.98$1465% below12.4x24.0%8264
CARL-B.CO Carlsberg Bkr 980.60kr 9068% above20.2x20.4%6367
2502.T Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd.¥1676.00--15.3x5.6%5666

Sector report card

Where FMX ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Oct 1, 2026
    FEMSA Schedules Conference Call to Discuss Third Quarter Financial Results
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 23, 2026
    FEMSA Announces Successful Issuance in the Swiss Bond Market
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 14, 2026
    FEMSA Announces Accelerated Share Repurchase Agreement
2 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
21 filings of 37
September 2026
Sep 23
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-23
View on SEC →
Sep 14
6-KForeign current reportPeriod 2026-09-14
View on SEC →
August 2026
Aug 12
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-08-11
View on SEC →
18 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR