Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers · TSE · Japan
¥1679.50+0.21%
Market cap ¥2.46TNext earnings 2026-11-13Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionAsahi Group Holdings, Ltd. (2502.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥1862
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 16:00 CEST.
Price used: ¥1680 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
66
out of 100
P/E
15.3x
forward 11.7x
1-year return
-3.8%
Dividend yield
3.70%
Asahi Group Holdings, Ltd. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Asahi Group makes Asahi Super Dry and Peroni beer, plus Japan's Calpis soft drinks, Mitsubishi Cola-era soft drink lines, and the Ichiban Shibori and Nikkan Sports brands, and it runs the largest share of Japan's beer and non-alcoholic beverage market. The brand portfolio and distribution depth in Japan, combined with a European and Oceania footprint through Peroni and Carlton & United, give it pricing power that shows up in a 37.9% gross margin and a 13.6% operating margin. Revenue grew 12.0% over the latest period, and the forward P/E of 11.7 against a trailing 15.2 implies the market expects earnings to rebuild, though ROE of 5.6% shows the balance sheet and asset base are still heavy. The case to examine further rests on whether margin gains from price increases and the Asahi overseas business can convert that top-line growth into earnings the forward multiple already anticipates. The 5.6% ROE and the lack of index membership are the two items to check first before committing research time.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Earnings growth flattered by base effects
Earnings rose 114.2% YoY while revenue grew only 12.0%, and the EPS beat was 44.7%. A surge that far above sales growth often reflects one-off items or a weak prior-year base, so the run-rate may be lower.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 2067.64 sits 23.4% above the current share price of ¥1679.50.
Earnings per share beat expectations by 44.7%, coming in at 53.14 against 36.72 expected.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 11.7x and pays a dividend yield of 3.7%, with the share price at ¥1679.50 against an ¥1862.00 ACCE price target.
Why it could disappoint
Return on equity of 5.6% is weak, meaning the company earns little profit on the capital shareholders have put in.
Net margin of 5.4% leaves little room for error if costs rise or sales soften.
The shares trade 9.8% below the ACCE price target, and the earnings rebound comes off a weak base, so the surprise may not repeat.
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Where 2502.T's valuation models land
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