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FEMSAUBD.MX
ACCE-researched

Fomento Economico Mexicano (FEMSAUBD.MX) fair value

Consumer Defensive · Beverages - Brewers · BMV · Mexico
MXN 240.21-0.35%
Market cap MXN 993.7BNext earnings 2025-07-22Updated Oct 24, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 63% above our fair value
Price
MXN 240.21
Model fair valueConfidence: good
MXN 147
Model range
MXN 86.85 to MXN 254
Fair value MXN 147
Price MXN 240
3 models fit Fomento Economico Mexicano and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver68
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionFomento Economico Mexicano (FEMSAUBD.MX)
Fair value (3 models)
MXN 147
ACCE price target
MXN 223
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously MXN 154 since 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: MXN 240 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 23:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
63.2% above
-38.7% to fair value
ACCE score
72
out of 100
P/E
18.7x
forward 6.2x
1-year return
+35.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Fomento Economico Mexicano in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Fomento Economico Mexicano (FEMSA) is a holding company whose main operating units include the FEMSA Comercio convenience store chain (OXXO) and Coca-Cola FEMSA, one of the largest independent Coca-Cola bottlers in the world. Its moat rests on dense, owned retail and distribution networks in Mexico and across Latin America that are costly for competitors to replicate, although the data provided doesn't include revenue growth or margins to quantify how that advantage is currently translating into earnings. The trailing P/E of 18.1 sits below the forward P/E of 25.1, which implies consensus expects earnings to decline over the next year, a point the team should verify against recent guidance before drawing conclusions. At a market capitalization of roughly 963.4B MXN, the company is large enough to merit a look, but the missing sector classification, growth, and return metrics mean the thesis needs fundamental work before it can be assessed.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-16 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • The dividend yield of 2.1% gives shareholders a cash return while they wait for the share price to move.
  • At a trailing P/E of 18.1x, the shares are priced at a lower multiple of past earnings than the forward figure suggests.
  • The share price was MXN 233.70 on 16 October, a level investors can compare against future prices.
Why it could disappoint
  • The forward P/E of 25.1x sits well above the trailing 18.1x, so the market expects earnings to fall.
  • A forward multiple that is higher than the trailing one leaves little room for error if results disappoint.
  • The company reports in pesos, so currency swings can distort reported earnings and make results harder to judge.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where FEMSAUBD.MX's valuation models land
Price
MXN 240.21
Model fair value
MXN 147
Model range
MXN 86.85 to MXN 254
Fair value MXN 147
Price MXN 240
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

No analyst coverage yet.
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Recent performance

1 week
+2.8%
1 month
+14.6%
3 months
+8.2%
6 months
+21.7%
YTD
+32.0%
1 year
+35.0%

Held by ETFs

ETFs we cover that hold Fomento Economico Mexicano among their largest holdings, by weight.

  • EWW · iShares MSCI Mexico ETF8.8% of the fund
Holdings as of 2026-10-24

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTFair valueMXN 147MXN 154MXN 240
24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publicationMXN 240
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair valueMXN 154first publicationMXN 234
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price targetMXN 223first publicationMXN 234

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

This security trades in MXN. Exchange-rate movements can increase or reduce the result in your own currency.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth76Value54Quality61Momentum97Total72
Valuation
Trailing P/E
18.7x
Forward P/E
6.2x
PEG
0.17
P/B
2.43x
EV / Revenue
1.0x
Book value/sh
MXN 64.08
Enterprise value
MXN 782.1B
Profitability
ROE
14.8%
FCF yield
2.92%
ROIC
4.1%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.60
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
0.18

Price

+36.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about FEMSAUBD.MX

Answered from Fomento Economico Mexicano fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 33% of peers
low 9.2x18.7xhigh 20.2x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low 11%15%high 24%
Div yieldbetter than 0% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 4.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
FEMSAUBD.MX Fomento Economico MexicanoMXN 240.21MXN 14763% above18.7x14.8%6172
ABEV Ambev S.A. American Depositary Shares (Each representing 1 Common Share)$3.30$418% below17.5x18.4%8477
HEIA.AS Heineken€77.52€719% above18.9x12.1%5967
FMX Fomento Economico Mexicano S.A.B. de C.V. Common Stock$128.52$7180% above9.2x14.8%5670
STZ Constellation Brands Inc. Common Stock$138.68$1465% below12.4x24.0%8264
CARL-B.CO Carlsberg Bkr 968.40kr 9067% above20.2x20.4%6367
BUD Anheuser-Busch Inbev SA Sponsored ADR (Belgium)$84.26$6530% above18.2x11.4%6977

Sector report card

Where FEMSAUBD.MX ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…