4 models fit Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver65
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionFreeport-McMoRan Inc. Common Stock (FCX)
Fair value (4 models)
$34.65
ACCE price target
$72.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $39.94 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $65.18 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
88.1% above
-46.8% to fair value
ACCE score
58
out of 100
Analysts
78% buy
23 covering
P/E
32.1x
forward 17.8x
1-year return
+58.1%
Dividend yield
0.93%
Freeport-McMoRan Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Freeport-McMoRan operates three large-scale copper mines (Grasberg in Indonesia, Morenci in Arizona, Tenke Fungurume in Congo) that together produce roughly 4 million tonnes of copper annually, plus significant gold and molybdenum byproducts. The company benefits from structural undersupply in copper driven by a decade of underinvestment in new mining capacity and rising demand from electrification and grid infrastructure. Production growth is the near-term catalyst: Grasberg's expansion is ramping through 2025 and 2026, adding roughly 300,000 tonnes of annual copper capacity at a time when global mine supply growth is constrained. The stock trades at 18.1x forward earnings despite copper prices near historical highs and a 33.4% operating margin, suggesting the market is pricing in either a significant price decline or execution risk on the expansion. At current production levels and realized prices, the company generates substantial free cash flow that funds both the capex program and shareholder returns, creating a self-funding growth profile unusual for a capital-intensive miner.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Revenue decline amid valuation stretch
Revenue fell 7.3% YoY while P/E stands at 36.3 (forward 18.1). Earnings growth of 28.1% appears driven by margin expansion rather than volume, raising sustainability questions.
high
ACCE score collapse
Score dropped 12 points in 90 days (72 to 60). Growth component fell to 35, signalling deterioration in forward momentum despite near-term QoQ strength.
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buys
Last 10 disclosures show $1.8M in sales and $0 in buys. Modest in absolute terms but directionally negative signal during a period of score weakness.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Freeport has generated 13.2% annual revenue growth over five years, demonstrating durable business momentum despite current headwinds.
The stock trades at 18.1x forward earnings, barely above the 17.2x sector median, while 78% of analysts rate it Buy or Strong Buy.
Recent earnings beat expectations by 19.4%, and the company returned $1.1B in free cash flow while shrinking share count.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow yield of 1.1% is extremely thin for a capital-intensive miner, leaving little room for shareholder returns or downturns.
Revenue fell 7.3% year over year while earnings grew, signaling margin compression risk if copper prices or costs deteriorate.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 27, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where FCX's valuation models land
Price
$65.18
Model fair value
$34.65
Model range
$17.61 to $56.09
Fair value $34.65
Price $65.18
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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