Southern Copper Corporation Common Stock (SCCO) fair value
Basic Materials · Copper · NYSE · United States
$185.01+0.77%
Market cap $155.0BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 100% above our fair value
Price
$185.01
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$92.42
Model range
$68.22 to $135
Fair value $92.42
Price $185
3 models fit Southern Copper Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver69
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionSouthern Copper Corporation Common Stock (SCCO)
Fair value (3 models)
$92.42
ACCE price target
$168
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $109 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 24 Oct 2026, 03:20 CEST; previously $165 since 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST.
Price used: $185 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
100.2% above
-50.0% to fair value
ACCE score
77
out of 100
Analysts
6% buy
18 covering
P/E
26.3x
forward 28.1x
1-year return
+49.7%
Dividend yield
1.94%
Southern Copper Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Southern Copper mines and refines copper, molybdenum, and zinc across Peru and Mexico, with integrated operations that run from ore extraction through cathode production. The company benefits from structural copper supply constraints: mine development cycles stretch 5-10 years, and few new projects are coming online while demand from power grids and EV charging infrastructure accelerates. Copper prices have risen sharply on supply fears, but Southern Copper's real advantage is its low all-in cost of production around $1.50 per pound, which leaves room for profit even if prices normalize. The stock trades at 28x forward earnings despite generating 61% operating margins and 50% ROE, metrics that reflect the cyclical nature of the commodity but also suggest the market is pricing in a near-term downturn in copper. At current valuations, the risk-reward hinges on whether copper demand stays elevated or reverts; the upside case requires conviction that electrification and grid modernization sustain prices above $4 per pound for years.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation stretched vs models
Price trades 100.2% above the model fair value of $92.42, and 10.1% above the ACCE price target of $168.00. Multiples (P/E 24.6, EV/EBITDA 17.1) leave little room for disappointment.
moderate
Heavy insider ownership concentration
Insiders hold 90.1% of shares, leaving a float of roughly 10%. Thin float can amplify price moves in both directions.
moderate
Short interest elevated
Short interest is 10.9% of shares, a meaningful bearish positioning level that could add volatility around earnings.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 24, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 40.6% over the past year, far faster than the 10.9% yearly average of the last five years.
The company converts sales into profit well, keeping 35.9 cents of each dollar of revenue as net profit.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $3.4B, and the company paid a 2.4% dividend yield.
Why it could disappoint
The shares trade at 100.2% above the model fair value of $92.42, so the price leaves little room for error.
Earnings and margins depend on an unusually strong copper price cycle, which could reverse and squeeze profits sharply.
The share count rose 6.6% last year, diluting each shareholder's stake in the company's future profits.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where SCCO's valuation models land
Price
$185.01
Model fair value
$92.42
Model range
$68.22 to $135
Fair value $92.42
Price $185
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
+A plain reason under every score
+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores