2 models fit Embraer S.A. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionEmbraer S.A. Common Stock (EMBJ)
Fair value (2 models)
$63.31
ACCE price target
$71.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $64.60 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $70.84 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
11.9% above
-10.6% to fair value
ACCE score
67
out of 100
Analysts
93% buy
15 covering
P/E
28.7x
forward 17.8x
1-year return
+10.3%
Dividend yield
1.37%
Embraer S.A. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Embraer builds regional jets, turboprops and the E-Jet family, plus executive jets under its Praetor line and a defense unit that sells the C-390 transport and Super Tucano trainer. Its moat is the installed base of E-Jets in North American and European regional fleets, where the 70 to 150 seat niche has few competitors and high switching costs for airline operators and their maintenance networks. The near-term driver is the commercial aviation recovery and fleet replacement cycle, with the defense backlog for the C-390 adding a second, less cyclical leg. The stock trades at 18.1x forward earnings against 29.3x trailing, which implies the market expects earnings to step up sharply, and revenue growth of 10.4% with a 13.0% operating margin gives the operating leverage to support that. The 17.9% gross margin and 12.2% ROE are modest for a premium aerospace name, so the case rests on margin expansion as volumes rise, not on current profitability. The name is outside major indices, which can keep the shares thinly followed and worth a closer look on that basis.
⚠ Investor warnings · 1 flagAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Insider ownership at zero
Insider ownership is listed at 0.0%, so management holds no meaningful stake alongside outside shareholders. Worth weighing against the institutional ownership of 46.1%.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-09-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 10.4% over the past year, and has averaged 16.2% a year over five years, showing sustained demand for its jets.
Analysts are overwhelmingly positive, with 14 of 15 rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy, and their mean target sits 29.9% above the share price.
The stock trades at a forward P/E of 19.9x, below the sector median of 23.6x, and the company beat latest earnings expectations by 100.0%.
Why it could disappoint
Return on invested capital is only 4.7%, and net margin of 5.3% leaves little buffer for delivery delays.
The reverse DCF shows the price implies cash flow growth of 7.8% a year forever, a demanding bar given the 2 of 3 models in the consensus.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where EMBJ's valuation models land
Price
$70.84
Model fair value
$63.31
Model range
$50.49 to $76.13
Fair value $63.31
Price $70.84
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
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