4 models fit BWX Technologies Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionBWX Technologies Inc. Common Stock (BWXT)
Fair value (4 models)
$60.08
ACCE price target
$136
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST; previously $95.04 since 12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 3 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 16:06 CEST.
Price used: $127 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
111.7% above
-52.8% to fair value
ACCE score
47
out of 100
Analysts
78% buy
18 covering
P/E
33.0x
forward 27.0x
1-year return
-36.4%
Dividend yield
0.77%
BWX Technologies Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
BWX Technologies makes naval nuclear reactor components for the US Navy's submarine and carrier fleets and supplies enriched uranium and medical isotopes, so its revenue is tied to long-dated government programs rather than commercial demand. The moat is the qualification it holds: few suppliers can produce reactor-grade parts to naval specifications, and that barrier is hard to replicate on any short timeline. Revenue growth of 18.0% is the number to test, since it comes from a defense-and-nuclear backlog that the company has to convert into margin. At a 10.4% operating margin and a 35.5 trailing P/E against 27.0 forward, the market is paying for that conversion, so the question for a deeper look is whether the margin expands as volume rises. The 47/100 score says the screen does not find that case yet.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation premium to model
Forward P/E of 27.0 and EV/EBITDA of 24.7 are elevated for 14% earnings growth.
high
Score deterioration
ACCE score fell 8 points in 90 days (55 to 47). Valuation component collapsed from likely higher to 38/100, signalling model sees reduced margin of safety.
moderate
High leverage
Debt/Equity ratio of 1.64 is elevated. Combined with $295M FCF, debt service capacity exists but limits financial flexibility in downturns.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Last 10 disclosures show $4.28M in insider sales and $0 in buys. Absence of offsetting purchases suggests limited insider conviction at current levels.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue accelerated to 18.0% year-over-year growth, well above the 8.5% five-year average, signaling strong demand momentum.
ROE of 28.3% demonstrates exceptional capital efficiency and shareholder value creation relative to peers.
Why it could disappoint
Debt-to-equity of 1.64 combined with 10.1% net margin leaves limited cushion if fixed-price contract costs exceed projections.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 2, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where BWXT's valuation models land
Price
$127.19
Model fair value
$60.08
Model range
$32.96 to $102
Fair value $60.08
Price $127
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores