3 models fit Douglas AG and they agree: 3 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Bronze44
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionDouglas AG (DOU.DE)
Fair value (3 models)
€19.91
ACCE price target
€9.60
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST.
Rating published on 22 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: €7.61 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 17:30 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
61.8% below
+161.6% to fair value
ACCE score
31
out of 100
P/E
26.2x
forward 6.0x
1-year return
-37.8%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Douglas AG in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Douglas runs Europe's largest perfumery and beauty retail chain, selling fragrances, cosmetics and skincare through roughly 2,000 stores in Germany, Poland, Italy and other markets, plus an online shop and its own Douglas-branded products. Its moat is scale and loyalty: a multi-country store footprint and a large customer base that buys through Douglas's own loyalty program, which gives it purchasing leverage with brand owners that smaller specialists lack. Revenue is shrinking (down 2.0%) and operating margin is thin at 3.1%, so the bull case rests on margin recovery rather than top-line growth, and the trailing P/E of 26.4 against a forward P/E of 6.0 implies earnings are expected to rebound sharply. That gap is the number to test: a forward P/E of 6.0 is only credible if the cost programme and mix shift toward higher-margin own brands and online actually show up in reported margins. With a 3.4% ROE and no index membership, this is a small-cap turnaround that needs a deeper look at the earnings bridge before it earns a place in the book.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings falling despite leverage
Revenue fell 2.0% YoY and earnings fell 10.7%, while Debt/Equity sits at 2.48. Thin net margin of 0.7% leaves little room for further slippage.
moderate
Heavy insider concentration
Insiders hold 72.8% of shares, leaving a small free float of about 22.2% institutional. Thinly traded stock can move sharply on modest volume.
moderate
Price well below model fair value
The stock trades 61.8% below the model fair value of €19.91. The gap reflects market scepticism about earnings durability, which the falling profit trend supports.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached EUR 458M, a substantial cash return relative to a €7.61 share price.
Revenue grew 7.2% per year on average over five years, showing a longer track record of expansion than the latest year suggests.
Analysts' mean price target of EUR 10.24 sits 37.3% above the current share price, indicating some professional optimism.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 2.0% year over year in the latest interim report, reversing the longer-term growth trend.
Net margin of 0.7% and return on equity of 3.4% leave very little profit for shareholders from each euro of sales.
Debt to equity of 2.48 means the balance sheet relies heavily on borrowing, which adds risk if earnings weaken further.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 10, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where DOU.DE's valuation models land
Price
€7.61
Model fair value
€19.91
Model range
€17.70 to €22.56
Fair value €19.91
Price €7.61
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Analysts
Wall Street consensus
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+Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
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