4 models fit CF Industries Holdings Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver73
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionCF Industries Holdings Inc. Common Stock (CF)
Fair value (4 models)
$142
ACCE price target
$114
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $165 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $152 since 18 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $121 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.2% below
+17.9% to fair value
ACCE score
85
out of 100
Analysts
27% buy
22 covering
P/E
8.6x
forward 12.2x
1-year return
+38.8%
Dividend yield
1.72%
CF Industries Holdings Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
CF Industries makes nitrogen fertilizers (ammonia, urea, UAN solutions) from natural gas at plants in the US, Canada and the UK, and it is one of the lowest-cost ammonia producers in the world. Its moat is the cost curve: when gas is cheap relative to the nitrogen price, its margins sit far above the marginal producer, and the company has the scale and feedstock position to keep that spread through the cycle. The near-term catalyst is the nitrogen price itself, with revenue growing 17.6% and operating margin at 49.3%, meaning each incremental tonne sold carries very high cash contribution. The stock trades at 9.0 times trailing earnings and 12.2 times forward, a low multiple for a business earning a 29.9% return on equity, which suggests the market is pricing in a normalization of fertilizer prices that the current growth rate does not yet show. The obvious risk is that the cycle turns, so the question for a PM is whether current nitrogen pricing and gas costs justify a deeper look at how durable those margins are.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Long-term revenue decline
5-year revenue CAGR of -14.1% signals structural headwinds despite recent +17.6% YoY bounce, likely cyclical recovery rather than sustainable growth.
moderate
ACCE score deterioration
Score fell 9 points in 90 days (89 to 80). Momentum score of 54/100 is notably weak relative to other pillars, suggesting recent gains may lack conviction.
moderate
Valuation gap to fair value
Current price $111.54 trades 26.6% below ACCE fair value of $152. Wide gap warrants scrutiny of model assumptions or near-term headwinds not yet priced in.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
The company generated $1.3B in free cash flow last twelve months with a 7.6% yield, enabling $1.3B in buybacks that cut share count 10.2% in one year.
Net margin of 27.1% and ROE of 29.9% demonstrate CF's ability to convert revenue into shareholder returns at industry-leading rates.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue has shrunk 14.1% per year on average over five years, signaling structural headwinds in nitrogen demand or pricing power.
The stock price implies negative 9.7% annual cash flow growth over the next five years, pricing in material deterioration from current levels.
CF missed earnings by 16.3% in the latest quarter, and only 27% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, suggesting limited conviction.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 4, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CF's valuation models land
Price
$120.68
Model fair value
$142
Model range
$79.54 to $201
Fair value $142
Price $121
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores