Consumer Cyclical · Packaging & Containers · NYSE · United States
$117.29-1.65%
Market cap $13.0BNext earnings 2026-10-19Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 16% above our fair value
Price
$117.29
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$101
Model range
$58.60 to $149
Fair value $101
Price $117
4 models fit Crown Holdings Inc. and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Silver73
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionCrown Holdings Inc. (CCK)
Fair value (4 models)
$101
ACCE price target
$132
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST; previously $103 since 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:53 CEST; previously $117 since 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 17:05 CEST.
Price used: $117 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
15.7% above
-13.6% to fair value
ACCE score
75
out of 100
Analysts
73% buy
15 covering
P/E
16.6x
forward 12.1x
1-year return
+18.5%
Dividend yield
1.13%
Crown Holdings Inc. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Crown Holdings makes metal beverage cans, including aluminum cans for beer and soft drinks and steel food cans, and it sells these to large brand owners on long-term supply contracts. The moat is operational: high-speed can lines, plants sited next to customer bottling operations, and switching costs that come from qualification and co-location rather than from brand. Revenue growth of 16.5% is well ahead of what a mature packaging business usually shows, so the question for a PM is how much of that is durable volume and pricing versus acquisitions or pass-through of aluminum costs. At a 13.1x forward P/E against a trailing 16.6x, the market is pricing in earnings growth, and a 27.4% ROE with a 12.6% operating margin says the capital base is being used well. The 21.0% gross margin leaves less room for error if input costs or customer mix turn, so this merits a look at the margin bridge and the contract renewal calendar before anything else.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Leverage remains elevated
Debt/Equity of 2.06 is high even though FCF of $1.1B covers obligations comfortably; a rate or earnings shock would hit equity holders harder than the cash flow suggests.
moderate
Insider selling without buying
Last 10 disclosed insider transactions show $3.18M in sales and no buys, with insiders holding only 0.9% of shares.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 17, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 16.5% year over year, well above the 5.7% average annual pace of the past five years.
Trading at a 9.1% free cash flow yield with a forward P/E of 12.1x, below the sector median of 17.5x.
Why it could disappoint
The share price sits 15.7% above the model fair value of $101.39, so the consensus models do not support today's price.
Net margin is only 5.9% and debt is 2.06 times equity, leaving little cushion if metal costs or can volumes turn.
Return on invested capital is 6.6%, and the price implies cash flow growth of just 4.2% a year, so the upside depends on the reverse-DCF assumptions holding.
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CCK's valuation models land
Price
$117.29
Model fair value
$101
Model range
$58.60 to $149
Fair value $101
Price $117
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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