3 models fit Maplebear Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionMaplebear Inc. Common Stock (CART)
Fair value (3 models)
$39.83
ACCE price target
$50.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $68.13 since 15 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $56.44 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
41.7% above
-29.4% to fair value
ACCE score
76
out of 100
Analysts
55% buy
33 covering
P/E
27.5x
forward 13.0x
1-year return
+43.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Maplebear Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Maplebear, which trades as Instacart, runs the grocery marketplace app that lets shoppers order from partner retailers and have a personal shopper deliver within hours, and it also sells advertising to brands that want placement inside that app. The moat is the density of its retailer network and the purchase data it gets from millions of repeat baskets, which gives it a feedback loop that a generic delivery app does not have. Revenue is growing 14.1% with a 72.6% gross margin, and the ad business is the reason that margin is so high relative to the company's 14.1% operating margin, since advertising carries far more profit per dollar than order fulfilment. The stock screens at 27.2 times trailing earnings but only 13.0 times forward earnings, a gap that means the market is either doubting the earnings forecast or is still pricing the company as a delivery service rather than a retail media platform. A 16.0% return on equity and a composite score of 73 out of 100 put it in the group worth a closer look, provided the forward earnings estimates hold up under scrutiny.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest sits at 14.4% of shares, a level that can amplify volatility in either direction. Insiders recorded $11.86M in sales and no buys across the last 10 disclosed transactions.
moderate
Price above model fair value
The stock trades 41.7% above the model fair value of $39.83, though the ACCE score held at 74 versus 75 ninety days ago and the balance sheet carries almost no debt.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-19 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 14.1% over the past year, and the five-year average annual growth rate is 20.4%.
The company generated $911M of free cash flow over the last twelve months, and its share count fell 3.3% last fiscal year.
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 55%, and their mean price target sits 14.1% above the current share price.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 41.7% above the model fair value of $39.83, and all three valuation models in the consensus point the same way.
The latest earnings per share missed expectations by 18.2%, with 0.45 reported against 0.55 expected.
At 27.7 times trailing earnings and 10.4 times forward earnings, the forward multiple sits below the 18.0 times sector median, yet the trailing multiple is high, leaving the valuation sensitive to growth.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where CART's valuation models land
Price
$56.44
Model fair value
$39.83
Model range
$30.05 to $49.39
Fair value $39.83
Price $56.44
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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