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ETSY

Etsy Inc. Common Stock (ETSY) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Internet Retail · NYSE · United States
$86.93-4.28%
Market cap $8.0BNext earnings 2026-10-28Updated Oct 24, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 26% below our fair value
Price
$86.93
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$117
Model range
$60.74 to $164
Fair value $117
Price $86.93
2 models fit Etsy Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 2 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)Silver71
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionEtsy Inc. Common Stock (ETSY)
Fair value (2 models)
$117
ACCE price target
$75.60
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $80.68 since 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $86.93 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
25.7% below
+34.5% to fair value
ACCE score
59
out of 100
Analysts
37% buy
30 covering
P/E
25.4x
forward 12.6x
1-year return
+17.7%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Etsy Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Etsy runs the two-sided online marketplace where independent sellers list handmade, vintage and craft goods, and it also owns Depop and Reverb, which give it resale and musical instrument niches. Its moat is the seller-buyer network and the search and recommendation layer that connects them, which keeps gross margin at 71.4% because Etsy earns marketplace fees rather than carrying inventory. Revenue growth of 6.2% is modest, but operating margin of 18.7% shows the business converts that growth into cash, with the forward P/E of 14.9 well below the trailing 26.1 implying earnings are expected to recover. The negative 1224.5% ROE reflects a very small equity base after heavy buybacks and past impairments, so it should be read as a capital structure artifact rather than a sign of operating distress. At an 8.2B market cap with no index membership, the name sits in the range where a re-rating on margin durability could matter, and it is worth a deeper look at seller economics and marketplace take rate trends.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Revenue growth slowing sharply
    Revenue is up 6.2% year on year but fell 30.6% quarter on quarter, and earnings are down 7.1% year on year despite a 71.4% gross margin.
  • high
    Heavy short interest
    Short interest stands at 16.7% of the float, a high level that can amplify volatility in either direction.
  • moderate
    Insider selling with no buying
    Insiders disclosed $9.87M of sales across the last 10 filings and no purchases, while holding only 1.4% of shares.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $639M, so the business is generating real cash rather than just reported profit.
  • Earnings per share beat expectations by 27.3% at the latest report, with 0.98 reported against 0.77 expected.
  • The forward P/E of 14.9x sits below the sector median forward P/E of 18.1x, so the shares look cheaper than peers on next-year earnings.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue grew just 6.2% year over year, well below the 10.8% annual average of the last five years.
  • Only 37% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, meaning most of the research community is not enthusiastic.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Oct 28, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where ETSY's valuation models land
Price
$86.93
Model fair value
$117
Model range
$60.74 to $164
Fair value $117
Price $86.93
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bearish37% buy · 30 covering analysts
● Strong buy 8● Buy 3● Hold 18● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+2.1%
1 month
+18.0%
3 months
+7.8%
6 months
+38.4%
YTD
+56.8%
1 year
+17.7%

SEC filings

Held by ETFs

ETFs we cover that hold Etsy Inc. Common Stock among their largest holdings, by weight.

  • XRT · SPDR S&P Retail ETF1.7% of the fund
Holdings as of 2026-10-24

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
24 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTRatingUndervaluedfirst publication$86.93
24 Oct 2026, 18:04 CESTFair value$117$80.68$86.93
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$80.68$68.81$85.14
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$68.81$64.42$89.18
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$64.42$57.18$76.71
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$75.60first publication$75.14
28 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$57.18$56.12$68.44
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$56.12$58.20$68.98
15 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$58.20$60.12$72.76
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$60.12$61.94$72.82

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth28Value67Quality50Momentum90Total59
Valuation
Trailing P/E
25.4x
Forward P/E
12.6x
PEG
no data
P/B
21.42x
EV / Revenue
3.0x
Book value/sh
$-15.10
Enterprise value
$8.7B
Profitability
ROE
-1224.5%
FCF yield
8.01%
ROIC
no data
Health and risk
Debt / equity
-2.80
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
1.86

Price

+17.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about ETSY

Answered from Etsy Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 80% of peers
low 23.4x25.4xhigh 72.5x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -1225%-1225%high 72%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 3.3%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
ETSY Etsy Inc. Common Stock$86.93$11726% below25.4x-1224.5%5059
ZAL.DE Zalando€26.82€264% above72.5x3.5%4360
4755.T Rakuten Group, Inc.¥634.50---0.3%2836
CHWY Chewy Inc. Class A Common Stock$21.93$208% above32.8x72.0%5754
3064.T MonotaRO Co., Ltd.¥2245.00--31.9x29.9%7869
3092.T ZOZO, Inc.¥1260.50--23.4x51.8%10070
GLBE Global-E Online Ltd. Ordinary Shares$41.36$19121% above47.0x17.0%7574

Sector report card

Where ETSY ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • PR Newswire•Oct 14, 2026
    Etsy to Announce Third Quarter 2026 Financial Results on October 28, 2026
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 9, 2026
    Remitly partners with Etsy to give sellers more choice in how they get paid globally
  • PR Newswire•Sep 2, 2026
    Etsy to Participate in Upcoming Investor Conference
1 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 19
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 19
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-15
View on SEC →
Oct 15
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-13
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR