4 models fit Builders FirstSource Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is below every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large discount(i)
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionBuilders FirstSource Inc. Common Stock (BLDR)
Fair value (4 models)
$136
ACCE price target
$54.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $117 since 14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $56.85 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
58.3% below
+140.0% to fair value
ACCE score
31
out of 100
Analysts
42% buy
24 covering
P/E
58.1x
forward 13.9x
1-year return
-54.2%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Builders FirstSource Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Builders FirstSource (BLDR) is the largest supplier of structural building products and prefabricated components to U.S. residential builders, selling trusses, wall panels, engineered wood, and related installed services. The bull case rests on its scale and its mix shift toward value-added content, which carries higher margins than commodity lumber and is harder for smaller regional competitors to replicate. The near-term catalyst is a housing recovery that lifts starts and pulls through component volume, though the timing of that recovery is the main open question. Right now revenue is shrinking, down 8.8%, and operating margin is thin at 3.3% against a 29.2% gross margin, so the earnings base is depressed. The forward P/E of 13.9 sits far below the trailing 55.9, which tells you the market expects earnings to rebound sharply; whether that rebound arrives is what a deeper look needs to test. The stock scores 34/100 on our framework and is not in any index, so the work ahead is a view on the housing cycle and on how durable the margin recovery is.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse
Earnings fell 82.9% year over year and net margin is only +0.7%, while the trailing P/E sits at 59.4 against a forward P/E of 13.9. The multiple rests on expected recovery, not on what the business earned.
high
Revenue shrinking
Revenue declined 8.8% year over year after a 5-year CAGR of +12.2%. Operating margin of +3.3% leaves little room to absorb a longer downturn.
moderate
Leverage and short interest
Debt to equity is 1.30 and short interest is 10.2% of float. Free cash flow of $853M covers the debt, but the combination adds pressure if results keep weakening.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 19, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $853M, a 14.5% yield at the current share price.
Revenue grew 12.2% per year on average over five years, showing the business has expanded substantially over time.
Analysts' mean price target of $71.36 sits 30.6% above the current share price, suggesting the Street sees upside.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 8.8% year over year, and the latest earnings per share missed expectations by 9.3%.
Return on invested capital of 3.6% and return on equity of 2.5% are thin, and the net margin is only 0.7%.
Debt to equity of 1.30 leaves the balance sheet heavily geared, and the trailing P/E of 59.4x looks stretched.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 29, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where BLDR's valuation models land
Price
$56.85
Model fair value
$136
Model range
$59.52 to $218
Fair value $136
Price $56.85
The price is below the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
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