4 models fit Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Discount(i)Silver62
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionLouisiana-Pacific Corporation Common Stock (LPX)
Fair value (4 models)
$84.91
ACCE price target
$66.00
Rating
Undervalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST; previously $83.51 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 11:06 CEST.
Price used: $73.76 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
13.1% below
+15.1% to fair value
ACCE score
34
out of 100
Analysts
86% buy
14 covering
P/E
97.2x
forward 19.1x
1-year return
-18.7%
Dividend yield
1.60%
Louisiana-Pacific Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Louisiana-Pacific makes engineered wood products, chiefly OSB (oriented strand board) sheathing and LP SmartSide siding, sold mainly into residential construction and repair-and-remodel channels in North America. The structural case rests on its position as one of the few scaled domestic producers of engineered siding and sheathing, with the SmartSide line giving it a branded, higher-margin product against commodity lumber. The near-term driver is housing starts: an OSB and siding recovery depends on mortgage rates easing enough to restart new-build demand, and that has not happened yet. Revenue fell 12.1% over the last year and the operating margin of 5.3% leaves little cushion, while the trailing P/E of 90.1 sits against a forward P/E of 19.1, which tells you the market is pricing a sharp earnings rebound. The stock scores 29/100 on our screen and carries no index membership, so the question for the PM is whether that rebound is credible enough to justify the deeper look.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapsing
Earnings fell 51.8% year over year and revenue fell 12.1%, while the stock still trades at a trailing P/E of 91.0. The trailing multiple reflects depressed profits, not a cheap stock.
moderate
Heavy short interest
Short interest sits at 13.5% of float, a meaningful bet against the shares that could amplify moves in either direction.
moderate
Insider selling outweighs buying
Across the last 10 disclosed insider trades, sales totalled $3.98M against $3.42M in purchases.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts are overwhelmingly positive, with 86% (12 of 14) rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $91M, and the diluted share count fell 1.4% last year.
The price implies only +2.7% yearly cash flow growth over five years, a low bar if housing demand recovers.
Why it could disappoint
Revenue fell 12.1% year over year, well below its +2.5% five-year average pace of growth.
The latest earnings per share came in 31.0% below expectations, at 0.40 against 0.58 expected.
At 91.0x trailing earnings and a 1.9% free cash flow yield, the stock looks expensive on current profits.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where LPX's valuation models land
Price
$73.76
Model fair value
$84.91
Model range
$34.48 to $146
Fair value $84.91
Price $73.76
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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