4 models fit Trex Company Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver65
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTrex Company Inc. Common Stock (TREX)
Fair value (4 models)
$33.35
ACCE price target
$45.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST; previously $33.94 since 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 19 Oct 2026, 18:04 CEST.
Price used: $50.38 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
51.0% above
-33.8% to fair value
ACCE score
59
out of 100
Analysts
58% buy
19 covering
P/E
29.6x
forward 24.9x
1-year return
+2.5%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Trex Company Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Trex makes composite decking and railing from recycled wood fibre and polyethylene, sold mainly through big-box retailers and dealers in North America. The durability and low-maintenance case against wood decking is the core of its franchise, and it has kept gross margin at 38.2% on the back of that premium. Revenue growth of 7.8% is modest for a name at a 26.6 trailing P/E, and the forward multiple of 21.0 implies the market expects earnings to catch up. Shares look worth a deeper look mainly if you believe repair-and-remodel demand is stabilising, since new-build exposure and the housing cycle drive most of the swing in volumes. The stock scores 53/100 and sits in no major index, so the work needed is on demand timing and margin durability rather than on the screen itself.