3 models fit AAON Inc. Common Stock and they disagree: 0 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)
Valued as a growth company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionAAON Inc. Common Stock (AAON)
Fair value (3 models)
$35.51
ACCE price target
$90.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST; previously $36.25 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 21 Oct 2026, 13:04 CEST.
Price used: $68.85 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
93.9% above
-48.4% to fair value
ACCE score
55
out of 100
Analysts
83% buy
6 covering
P/E
36.2x
forward 19.3x
1-year return
-32.3%
Dividend yield
0.57%
AAON Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
AAON makes packaged HVAC equipment, including rooftop units, chillers and air handlers, sold mainly into commercial and data center buildings. Its edge is a manufacturing footprint built around custom-configured, energy-efficient systems, which has let it win share as building codes and cooling demand tighten. Revenue growth of 101.2% is the headline, driven by data center and large-commercial projects, though that rate is unlikely to persist and the question is how much of it converts to durable margin. Fwd P/E of 21.8 against a trailing 40.7 implies earnings are expected to roughly double as the build-out matures, but an 11.0% operating margin on a 25.6% gross margin leaves little room for a slowdown in pricing or project timing. A reasonable next step is to test how much of the backlog is contracted versus pipeline, and whether margins hold as volume scales.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Free cash flow deeply negative
FCF of $-191.4M against a $6.2B market cap means the growth is being funded by cash outflow, not earnings. Reported profits are not turning into cash.
moderate
Valuation stretched on trailing earnings
Trailing P/E of 39.6 and EV/EBITDA of 24.2 sit well above the 21.1 forward P/E, and the price trades 93.9% above the model fair value of $35.51. Much of the growth is priced in.
moderate
Score fell 12 points in 90 days
The ACCE score dropped from 67 to 55 over 90 days, with the momentum sub-score at 17 and valuation at 38. The deterioration is concentrated in these two areas.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-21 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 101.2% year over year, far above its 22.9% average annual pace over five years.
The latest quarter's earnings per share beat expectations by 32.7%, coming in at 0.69 against 0.52 expected.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -$191M, so the business is consuming cash as it expands.
The shares trade 93.9% above the model fair value of $35.51, and the consensus of all three models sits well below the price.
At 39.6x trailing earnings, the stock costs more than the 23.3x sector median forward multiple, even before accounting for expected growth.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where AAON's valuation models land
Price
$68.85
Model fair value
$35.51
Model range
$22.70 to $55.61
Fair value $35.51
Price $68.85
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores