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AMBA
ACCE-researched

Ambarella Inc. Ordinary Shares (AMBA) fair value

Technology · Semiconductor Equipment & Materials · NASDAQ · United States
$66.50+5.35%
Market cap $2.8BNext earnings 2026-11-24Updated Oct 24, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 275% above our fair value
Price
$66.50
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $17.72
Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
Not used by alerts or posts.
Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison and Discounted cash flow.
ACCE opinionAmbarella Inc. Ordinary Shares (AMBA)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$55.30
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $45.00 since 9 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $66.50 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow and P/E comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
35
out of 100
Analysts
43% buy
14 covering
P/E
0.0x
forward 84.7x
1-year return
-20.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%

Ambarella Inc. Ordinary Shares in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Ambarella designs system-on-chip processors for camera-centric products, including video encoders for security and automotive cameras, edge AI vision chips, and imaging processors for drones and action cameras. Its moat rests on a 58.5% gross margin, high for a fabless chip company, built on a long record of low-power video processing that customers design into their hardware for years at a time. The near-term story is the shift from simple video encoding toward on-device AI inference in cameras and automotive sensing, where its newer chips are meant to carry more of the value per unit. Revenue is growing 13.2%, but the company is still loss-making with a -7.5% operating margin and -9.4% return on equity, and at 84.7 times forward earnings the market is pricing in a meaningful margin recovery that the current numbers do not yet show. The stock carries a score of 37/100 and sits outside the major indices, so it is a name that needs a clear view on when profitability turns before it merits further work.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Profitability collapse
    Net margin -13.5%, operating margin -7.5%, ROE -9.4%. Company is unprofitable despite 58.5% gross margin, signaling execution or cost control issues.
  • high
    Valuation disconnect
    Forward P/E 60.2, P/S 7.1 vs ACCE fair value $45 (33% below current $67.43). Score fell 7 points in 90 days to 41/100.
  • moderate
    Earnings stalled
    Earnings YoY +0.0% despite revenue +13.2%. Margin expansion not translating to bottom-line growth; suggests structural profitability headwind.
  • moderate
    Insider selling pressure
    Last 10 disclosures: $0.61M in sales, zero buys. Insiders liquidating while stock trades well above model fair value.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue accelerated to 13.2% year-over-year growth, outpacing the 5.0% five-year average and signaling strengthening demand.
  • The company generated 33 million dollars in free cash flow while maintaining a conservative 0.02 debt-to-equity ratio.
  • Earnings beat expectations by 5.3% and 43% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy with 32.5% upside to targets.
Why it could disappoint
  • The company trades at 60.2x forward earnings while burning a 13.5% net margin and destroying shareholder value with negative 9.4% ROE.
  • Free cash flow yield of only 1.1% does not justify a 60.2x valuation multiple in a mature semiconductor market.
  • Share dilution of 3.4% last year combined with negative 10.4% ROIC shows capital is being destroyed, not created.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 24, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where AMBA's valuation models land
Price
$66.50
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $17.72
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed43% buy · 14 covering analysts
● Strong buy 4● Buy 2● Hold 8● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+7.8%
1 month
-1.7%
3 months
-2.3%
6 months
-0.6%
YTD
-6.1%
1 year
-20.3%

SEC filings

Recent ACCE blog coverage

  • $AMBA Score Jumps 11 Points to 53 - Momentum Leads the Way
    Ambarella's ACCE composite score moved from 42 to 53. A Momentum subscore of 97/100 and 16.9% revenue growth are doing the heavy lifting.
    2026-08-03
  • $AMBA Score Drops 12 Points to 37 as Value and Momentum Weigh
    Ambarella's ACCE composite score fell from 49 to 37. Here's what the subscore breakdown reveals about where the pressure is coming from.
    2026-07-17
  • $AMBA Score Jumps 13 Points to 53 - Momentum Leads the Way
    Ambarella's ACCE composite score moved from 40 to 53. A Momentum subscore of 97/100 and 16.9% revenue growth are driving the upgrade. Here's what changed.
    2026-07-01
  • $AMBA Reports 20.1% Revenue Growth in Latest Earnings
    Ambarella posted 20.1% year-over-year revenue growth in its latest earnings report. Here's what the numbers say about $AMBA right now.
    2026-05-29

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$55.30$45.00$61.70
9 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$12.06$11.78$65.33
6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.78$11.96$68.65
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.96$12.13$72.68
25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$12.13$11.86$67.62
20 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.86$11.72$66.15
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$11.72$12.00$62.77
11 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$12.00$12.23$63.48
31 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$12.23$21.12$71.16
28 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$21.12$20.34$69.68

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth40Value18Quality43Momentum38Total35
Valuation
Trailing P/E
0.0x
Forward P/E
84.7x
PEG
no data
P/B
4.81x
EV / Revenue
6.5x
Book value/sh
$14.05
Enterprise value
$2.7B
Profitability
ROE
-9.4%
FCF yield
2.08%
ROIC
-10.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.02
Dividend yield
0.00%
Beta
2.38

Price

-22.3% · 1Y

Ask anything about AMBA

Answered from Ambarella Inc. Ordinary Shares fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0x0.0xhigh 1302.0x
ROEbetter than 0% of peers
low -9%-9%high 12%
Div yieldbetter than 100% of peers
low 0.0%0.0%high 0.0%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
AMBA Ambarella Inc. Ordinary Shares$66.50----9.4%4335
IPGP IPG Photonics Corporation Common Stock$71.07$5528% above113.8x1.3%5134
VECO Veeco Instruments Inc. Common Stock$42.06$2661% above113.7x2.6%5147
ACLS Axcelis Technologies Inc. Common Stock$106.58$8723% above39.1x8.9%6748
AXTI AXT Inc Common Stock$52.08--1302.0x1.0%5947
ACMR ACM Research Inc. Class A Common Stock$50.55$4415% above23.8x11.6%7467
COHU Cohu Inc. Common Stock$47.96----4.8%3949

Sector report card

Where AMBA ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 15, 2026
    Ambarella Expands its Developer Zone with Remote Access to Live Silicon and Agentic AI Development on Google Cloud Platform
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 15, 2026
    Ambarella Launches X7, Its First Standalone AI Accelerator, to Add Physical AI to Any Host Processor
  • GlobeNewswire•Sep 15, 2026
    Ambarella and ZEDEDA Partner to Bring Cloud-Orchestrated AI to Billions of Devices at the Physical Edge
8 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
September 2026
Sep 28
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-25
View on SEC →
Sep 21
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-18
View on SEC →
Sep 18
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-17
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR