Ambarella's ($AMBA) ACCE composite score dropped 12 points, moving from 49 to 37 out of 100. That's a meaningful single-step decline, and the current subscore breakdown tells you where the weight is sitting.
The four subscores as of today: Growth 52, Value 18, Quality 43, Momentum 34. Value at 18 and Momentum at 34 are the clear drag points. A 12-point composite move of this size typically reflects deterioration in one or two of those subscores rather than a broad, even slide across all four.
What it means
Value (18/100) is the lowest subscore by a wide margin, and the underlying data supports why. The stock trades at $62.24 with a forward P/E of 87.0 and no trailing earnings to speak of (trailing P/E is listed as 0.0, consistent with the reported net margin of -17.2%). The ACCE 6-model fair value estimate sits at $23.16, implying the current price is roughly 62.8% above that composite estimate. When a valuation model sees that kind of gap between price and fair value, the Value subscore takes a hit. If that gap widened heading into this score revision, it would easily account for a large portion of the 12-point drop.
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Momentum (34/100) adds more pressure. $AMBA has returned -8.1% over the past year. Momentum subscores reward stocks with relative price strength; a negative one-year return in a market where many tech names have moved higher works directly against that. If near-term price action softened further before this revision, momentum would be the first subscore to reflect it.
Quality (43/100) sits in the middle. ROE is -11.8% and net margin is -17.2%, both negative, which limits how high a quality score can go. The one bright spot here is that earnings quality is flagged as strong and FCF yield comes in at +1.8%, which keeps the quality score from falling further.
Growth (52/100) is the relative bright spot. Year-over-year revenue growth of +16.9% gives the growth subscore something to work with, and at 52 it's the only subscore sitting above the midpoint. That said, year-over-year earnings growth is listed at 0.0%, so the top-line momentum isn't yet converting to the bottom line.
The analyst consensus target of $95.00 sits well above the current price of $62.24, but the ACCE fair value model at $23.16 points in the opposite direction. That divergence between sell-side targets and model-based valuation is worth keeping in mind when interpreting the score.
For the live score and full breakdown, see acceinvestments.com/stocks/AMBA.
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