4 models fit Axcelis Technologies Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionAxcelis Technologies Inc. Common Stock (ACLS)
Fair value (4 models)
$86.84
ACCE price target
$115
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $100 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST; previously $155 since 6 May 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $107 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
22.7% above
-18.5% to fair value
ACCE score
48
out of 100
Analysts
20% buy
5 covering
P/E
39.1x
forward 19.8x
1-year return
+26.3%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Axcelis Technologies Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Axcelis makes ion implant systems and related process equipment that chipmakers use to dope silicon wafers, with its Purion and high-current implant platforms serving power semiconductor and specialty device fabs. The company's edge is installed-base service and process-specific tooling in a niche where qualification cycles are long and switching is costly, which supports a 43.0% gross margin. The near-term driver is demand for power and analog devices as electrification and auto and industrial chip cycles recover, though the business is cyclical and tied to customer capex. At 36.4 times trailing earnings but 19.8 times forward, the market is pricing a sharp earnings recovery, and with revenue growing 10.6% against a 9.4% operating margin, that recovery is the core question. The score of 59 out of 100 and the lack of index membership suggest the name is worth a deeper look on margin trajectory and order visibility, not yet a conviction call.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings collapse vs revenue growth
Earnings fell 23.5% YoY while revenue grew 10.6%. Operating margin of 9.4% is thin for semiconductor equipment; suggests pricing pressure or cost inflation outpacing sales.
high
Valuation disconnect with fundamentals
P/E 45.2 and EV/EBITDA 38.1 are elevated for a company with negative 5-year revenue CAGR (-3.0%) and recent earnings decline. Forward P/E 25.6 implies significant near-term recovery.
moderate
Insider selling with no offsetting buys
$2.58M in insider sales over last 10 disclosures and zero buys. Suggests insiders lack conviction despite modest score improvement.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Recent earnings beat by 30.4% suggests management is executing better than Wall Street expected.
Company is returning cash to shareholders while maintaining a fortress balance sheet with 0.07 debt to equity.
Revenue accelerated to 10.6% growth year over year, reversing a five-year decline trend.
Why it could disappoint
Stock trades at 45.2x trailing earnings with consensus fair value 24.6% below current price.
Free cash flow yield of 1.0% is meager for a capital-intensive semiconductor equipment maker.
Only 20% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy, suggesting limited conviction among professionals.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where ACLS's valuation models land
Price
$106.58
Model fair value
$86.84
Model range
$54.20 to $115
Fair value $86.84
Price $107
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores