3 models fit IPG Photonics Corporation Common Stock and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
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Valued as a cyclical company: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Discounted cash flow, and Graham number.
ACCE opinionIPG Photonics Corporation Common Stock (IPGP)
Fair value (3 models)
$55.48
ACCE price target
$80.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST; previously $54.26 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 15:04 CEST.
Price used: $71.07 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
28.1% above
-21.9% to fair value
ACCE score
34
out of 100
Analysts
67% buy
9 covering
P/E
113.8x
forward 32.4x
1-year return
-18.0%
Dividend yield
0.00%
IPG Photonics Corporation Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
IPG Photonics makes high-power fiber lasers used in metal cutting and welding, along with the amplifiers and components that go inside them, and it sells most of them into industrial manufacturing. Its moat rests on vertically integrated fiber and diode production, which is harder for rivals to copy than the laser systems built on top. The near-term driver is a recovery in industrial capital spending that lifts system orders, with revenue growing 11.1% on the trailing figures we have. The stock is interesting now mainly because the earnings base is thin: a 113.5 trailing P/E against a 32.4 forward P/E says profits are expected to rebuild sharply, but the 5.9% operating margin and 1.3% ROE show how little cushion exists if that rebuild stalls. The 35/100 score and absence from any index argue for a deeper look only if the margin recovery is visible in the next two quarters.
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Earnings falling despite revenue growth
Revenue grew 11.1% year on year, but earnings fell 22.8%. Operating margin is 5.9% and net margin 2.6%, so the growth is not converting to profit.
high
Free cash flow negative
Free cash flow is $-3,454,000, so the business is consuming cash. Debt is low (debt/equity 0.01), which limits the balance sheet risk but does not fix the cash burn.
moderate
Heavy insider selling
Recent disclosed insider sales total $21.67M against buys of $0.20M. Insiders own 39.0% of the company, so this selling is material relative to the disclosed buying.
moderate
Score down sharply in 90 days
The ACCE score fell 11 points, from 45 to 34, over 90 days. Momentum (M:17) and value (V:28) are the weakest components.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 20, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy at 67%, with 6 of 9 covering analysts positive.
The latest quarter beat expected earnings per share by 45.0%, with 0.58 reported against 0.40 expected.
Revenue grew 11.1% year over year, and the company carries almost no debt with a debt to equity ratio of 0.01.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades 28.1% above the model fair value of $55.48, and the consensus of valuation models sits below the price.
Free cash flow over the last 12 months was -$3M, and the net margin of 2.6% leaves little profit from each dollar of sales.
Trailing P/E stands at 111.5x against a sector median forward P/E of 29.1x, and the five-year average revenue growth is -3.5% per year.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Nov 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
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Valuation
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Where IPGP's valuation models land
Price
$71.07
Model fair value
$55.48
Model range
$28.94 to $85.63
Fair value $55.48
Price $71.07
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores