Industrials · Farm & Heavy Construction Machinery · TSE · Japan
¥6708.00-1.09%
Market cap ¥5.95TNext earnings 2026-10-29Updated Oct 24, 2026 · valuation updating
Our verdict
No fair value
We are missing the financial data our models need for this company. It will appear once the data arrives.
Not valued: there are no financial statements on file yet.
ACCE opinionKomatsu Ltd. (6301.T)
Fair value
Not available
ACCE price target
¥7227
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 22 Oct 2026, 15:59 CEST.
Price used: ¥6708 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 08:30 CEST.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
62
out of 100
P/E
16.4x
forward 12.1x
1-year return
+21.5%
Dividend yield
2.80%
Komatsu Ltd. in four questions
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Komatsu makes hydraulic excavators, bulldozers, mining haul trucks and wheel loaders, and sells them alongside a large aftermarket parts and service business that its dealer and digital platforms (Komtrax telematics) help keep in place. The moat is the installed base: once a fleet is built around Komatsu machines and parts, switching costs are high, and that aftermarket tail supports the 30.4% gross margin. Revenue grew 14.7% and the operating margin is 14.5%, so the business is currently converting growth into profit rather than just volume. At 16.9x trailing and 12.2x forward earnings, the stock is priced below that growth rate, though ROE of 11.6% is modest for a company of this scale and is worth testing against capital intensity and cyclicality in mining and construction demand. The name is worth a deeper look mainly to judge whether 14.7% growth is durable through a construction or commodity downturn.
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Negative free cash flow
Free cash flow is reported at $-37.9B, meaning capex and working capital absorbed more cash than operations generated. Worth checking whether this is a one-off or a trend.
moderate
Sharp quarter-on-quarter drop
Revenue fell 14.3% QoQ even though it grew 14.7% year on year, which points to a seasonal or lumpy quarter rather than a broken trend, but it deserves a look.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 22, 2026 · figures from 2026-10-22 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue grew 14.7% year over year, well ahead of its 5.3% average annual pace over five years.
At 12.2 times forward earnings, the shares look cheap against the 16.4 times trailing multiple.
Analysts' mean price target of JPY 7481.67 sits 10.3% above the current share price, and the latest earnings beat expectations by 11.6%.
Why it could disappoint
Free cash flow over the last twelve months was negative at -JPY 37.9B, despite strong revenue growth.
Return on equity of 11.6% and a net margin of 8.9% are modest for an investor to earn on capital.
The shares trade 7.2% below the ACCE price target of ¥7227.00, which suggests the market already doubts the upside case.
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