Verbio SE (VBK.DE) : juste valeur

Thèse ACCE

Verbio SE makes renewable fuels in Germany: bioethanol and biomethane from grain and by-products, plus biodiesel and renewable fuel for the German and EU transport markets, which is where the company sells most of its volume. The structural case rests on EU and German biofuel mandates and quota rules that create captive demand for advanced biofuels, rather than on the company's chemical peers, which it only loosely resembles despite its industry tag. Revenue growth of 22.7% and an operating margin of 11.7% point to a business still scaling into those mandates, but an 8.2% ROE and an 18.0% gross margin show how thin the economics remain. The valuation looks inconsistent on its face: a trailing P/E of 27.4 against a forward P/E of 10.8 implies a sharp expected earnings recovery that the trailing numbers do not yet show, so the gap is the first thing to test. Worth a deeper look to establish whether 2025 and 2026 earnings are rebounding on policy-supported margins or whether the forward figure rests on assumptions that the current margin structure cannot yet carry.