ORIX Corporation (8591.T) : juste valeur

Thèse ACCE

ORIX is a Tokyo-listed financial conglomerate whose businesses span equipment leasing, lending, asset management (including Orix's stakes in listed asset managers), insurance, aircraft and rail leasing, and real estate and concession operations. Its moat is the breadth of its origination and servicing franchise across Japan and Asia, which lets it generate fee income from managing assets on behalf of others alongside its balance-sheet lending. Revenue growth of 17.4% and a 14.0% ROE are strong for a company of this type, and the 21.5% operating margin suggests the mix is not reliant on thin-margin lending alone. The valuation is the reason to look closer: a trailing P/E of 10.4 against a forward P/E of 15.5 implies the market is pricing earnings to decline from current levels, which is worth checking against the company's guidance and the reasons behind it. The next step is to test whether the forward earnings cut is conservative and whether the growth in revenue is translating into durable profit.