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WSM
ACCE-researched

Williams-Sonoma Inc. Common Stock (DE) (WSM) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · NYSE · United States
$252.47-3.19%
Market cap $29.7BNext earnings 2026-11-18Updated Oct 20, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 75% above our fair value
Price
$252.47
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$144
Model range
$121 to $177
Fair value $144
Price $252
3 models fit Williams-Sonoma Inc. Common Stock (DE) and they disagree: 1 of 3 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver69
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionWilliams-Sonoma Inc. Common Stock (DE) (WSM)
Fair value (3 models)
$144
ACCE price target
$234
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $148 since 16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $232 since 24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $252 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, and EV/EBITDA comparison.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
74.9% above
-42.8% to fair value
ACCE score
74
out of 100
Analysts
48% buy
23 covering
P/E
25.9x
forward 24.0x
1-year return
+34.3%
Dividend yield
1.17%

Williams-Sonoma Inc. Common Stock (DE) in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Williams-Sonoma sells premium home furnishings and kitchenware through its Pottery Barn, West Elm, Williams Sonoma, Rejuvenation and Mark and Graham banners, with a large direct-to-consumer business supported by its own catalog and e-commerce platform. The moat is brand positioning and merchandising scale in a category where most rivals are either mass-market or boutique, which shows up in a 45.7% gross margin and a 17.3% operating margin. Revenue is growing 6.7% and the return on equity is 55.0%, so the business is compounding capital efficiently at a time when housing turnover has been weak. The stock trades at 24.5x trailing and 22.7x forward earnings, a price that leaves little room for a slow housing recovery or a further gross margin slip, so the case rests on whether top-line growth holds up and margins hold near current levels. A score of 75/100 and a $28.1B market cap put it worth a closer look on quality, though valuation is the first question to answer.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 13, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Five-year revenue decline
    5y revenue CAGR is -3.5% despite recent +6.7% YoY growth, signalling structural headwinds in core retail business that may not persist.
  • moderate
    Insider selling without offsetting buys
    Last 10 disclosures show $8.38M in sales and $0.00M in buys. Insiders are exiting while stock has gained 9 ACCE points in 90 days.
  • moderate
    Valuation premium to fair value
    Limited margin of safety.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Williams-Sonoma generated 55.0% return on equity and 38.7% return on invested capital, well above retail norms.
  • The company produced 1.1B in free cash flow while shrinking share count by 3.8%, boosting per-share value.
  • Latest earnings beat expectations by 37.9%, and 48% of analysts rate the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
  • Revenue fell 3.5% per year over five years, and current 6.7% growth leaves little room for error.
  • Consensus fair value is 38.0% below the current 241.78 share price, with only 3 of 5 models supporting it.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 18, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where WSM's valuation models land
Price
$252.47
Model fair value
$144
Model range
$121 to $177
Fair value $144
Price $252
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed48% buy · 23 covering analysts
● Strong buy 9● Buy 2● Hold 11● Sell 0● Strong sell 1
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
1 buy · 0 sells
Since Oct 8, 2026, 1 member
Average delay
4 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.9%
1 month
+10.8%
3 months
+11.3%
6 months
+32.5%
YTD
+41.4%
1 year
+34.3%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$144$148$249
20 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$249
18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$234$232$250
16 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$148$150$242
11 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$150$156$242
7 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$156$153$239
5 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$153$155$232
29 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$155$158$232
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$232first publication$233
24 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$158$154$233

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth64Value50Quality85Momentum97Total74
Valuation
Trailing P/E
25.9x
Forward P/E
24.0x
PEG
0.62
P/B
14.40x
EV / Revenue
3.5x
Book value/sh
$18.18
Enterprise value
$27.8B
Profitability
ROE
55.0%
FCF yield
3.54%
ROIC
25.2%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.70
Dividend yield
1.17%
Beta
1.47

Price

+33.5% · 1Y

Ask anything about WSM

Answered from Williams-Sonoma Inc. Common Stock (DE) fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 17% of peers
low 15.4x25.9xhigh 34.4x
ROEbetter than 100% of peers
low 18%55%high 55%
Div yieldbetter than 50% of peers
low 0.0%1.2%high 4.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
WSM Williams-Sonoma Inc. Common Stock (DE)$252.47$14475% above25.9x55.0%8574
ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock$635.01$38963% above22.8x46.1%7871
CASY Casey's General Stores Inc. Common Stock$713.65$288148% above34.4x20.0%5862
BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. Common Stock$99.83$7730% above15.7x43.1%5873
TSCO Tractor Supply Company Common Stock$34.73$2443% above18.0x39.5%6445
ATD.TO Alimentation Couche-TardC$84.58C$6825% above17.5x19.6%5368
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods Inc Common Stock$148.78$11925% above15.4x18.5%5754

Sector report card

Where WSM ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 14, 2026
    POTTERY BARN LAUNCHES NEW COLLABORATION WITH ASHLEY STARK
  • Business Wire•Sep 30, 2026
    POTTERY BARN LAUNCHES NEW COLLABORATION WITH BIG DADDY’S ANTIQUES
  • PR Newswire•Sep 28, 2026
    unspun Strengthens Leadership Team with New Chief Operating Officer and Chief Commercial Officer
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 19
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 16
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-16
View on SEC →
Oct 13
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-09
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR