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TSCO
ACCE-researched

Tractor Supply Company Common Stock (TSCO) fair value

Consumer Cyclical · Specialty Retail · NASDAQ · United States
$33.42-3.77%
Market cap $17.4BNext earnings 2026-10-22Updated Oct 23, 2026
Our verdict
Trades 38% above our fair value
Price
$33.42
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$24.25
Model range
$15.62 to $32.22
Fair value $24.25
Price $33.42
5 models fit Tractor Supply Company Common Stock and they disagree: 2 of 5 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)Bronze50
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionTractor Supply Company Common Stock (TSCO)
Fair value (5 models)
$24.25
ACCE price target
$38.00
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CEST; previously $23.80 since 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $31.00 since 26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $33.42 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
37.8% above
-27.4% to fair value
ACCE score
45
out of 100
Analysts
50% buy
30 covering
P/E
18.0x
forward 16.2x
1-year return
-40.7%
Dividend yield
2.76%

Tractor Supply Company Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
Free accounts get 5 full stock pages a month, including the four answers.
OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Tractor Supply runs about 2,200 rural lifestyle stores selling feed, animal health products, fencing, tools, and farm equipment, with a large share of sales coming from its Tractor Supply and Petsense brands. Its moat rests on rural customer loyalty and a dense store footprint that competitors struggle to replicate, which shows up in a 39.5% return on equity and a 36.5% gross margin. Revenue growth has slowed to 2.3%, so the case depends on whether margins hold while top-line expansion stays modest. At 17.5x trailing and 16.5x forward earnings, the valuation is not stretched for a business with this return profile, though the 43/100 score and absence from major indexes suggest the market is not rewarding the name right now. The question for a deeper look is whether the 12.1% operating margin can expand as comparable sales recover, or whether slower growth is the new baseline.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 14, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 4 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • high
    Earnings collapse
    Net income down 15% YoY despite 2.3% revenue growth. Operating margin at 12.1% suggests cost pressures or mix headwinds outpacing sales.
  • high
    Leverage and weak cash generation
    Debt/Equity 2.49 combined with FCF of only $103M on $17.6B market cap. Limited cushion to service debt in a downturn.
  • moderate
    ACCE score deterioration
    Score fell 7 points in 90 days (46 to 39). Quality and Momentum sub-scores weak at 64 and 17 respectively, signalling deceleration.
  • moderate
    Growth stalling
    5-year revenue CAGR of 3.0% with current YoY at 2.3%. QoQ bounce of 26.4% appears seasonal; underlying trend is sluggish.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Return on equity of 39.5% and return on invested capital of 18.7% show TSCO deploys capital far more efficiently than peers.
  • Share count fell 1.4% last year while the company returned cash to shareholders, reducing dilution and boosting per-share value.
  • Analyst consensus targets $35.56, implying 5.5% upside from current price, with half of analysts rating the stock Buy or Strong Buy.
Why it could disappoint
  • Consensus fair value of $26.65 sits 20.9% below the current $33.70 price, suggesting the stock is materially overvalued today.
  • Free cash flow yield of only 0.6% on $103M annual generation is weak for a mature retailer with limited reinvestment needs.
  • Revenue growth of 2.3% year over year trails the 5-year average of 3.0%, signaling deceleration in an already slow-growth business.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

PRO

Ask ACCE

Valuation

INVESTOR
Where TSCO's valuation models land
Price
$33.42
Model fair value
$24.25
Model range
$15.62 to $32.22
Fair value $24.25
Price $33.42
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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See what each model says, the assumptions behind it, the bad, normal and good cases, and why the fair value changed.

Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Mixed50% buy · 30 covering analysts
● Strong buy 12● Buy 3● Hold 15● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
0 buys · 10 sells
Since Apr 9, 2026, 2 members
Average delay
12 days
From trade to public filing
Full trade list on ProDo politicians beat the market? Our backtest →
Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+0.8%
1 month
+3.5%
3 months
+7.7%
6 months
-9.0%
YTD
-33.2%
1 year
-40.7%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
23 Oct 2026, 12:04 CESTFair value$24.25$23.80$34.73
23 Oct 2026, 01:52 CESTACCE price target$38.00$31.00$34.73
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTFair value$23.80$28.36$33.16
18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$33.16
14 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$28.36$26.65$33.45
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.65$26.33$33.48
4 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$26.33$27.03$31.09
26 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$31.00first publication$31.44
21 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$27.03$27.56$32.21
11 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$27.56$28.16$34.00

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth19Value71Quality64Momentum25Total45
Valuation
Trailing P/E
18.0x
Forward P/E
16.2x
PEG
no data
P/B
6.39x
EV / Revenue
1.5x
Book value/sh
$5.04
Enterprise value
$23.1B
Profitability
ROE
39.5%
FCF yield
4.35%
ROIC
10.5%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
2.30
Dividend yield
2.76%
Beta
0.51

Price

-40.6% · 1Y

Ask anything about TSCO

Answered from Tractor Supply Company Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 50% of peers
low 15.4x18.0xhigh 34.4x
ROEbetter than 67% of peers
low 16%40%high 46%
Div yieldbetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0%2.8%high 4.1%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
TSCO Tractor Supply Company Common Stock$33.42$2438% above18.0x39.5%6445
DKS Dick's Sporting Goods Inc Common Stock$148.78$11925% above15.4x18.5%5754
BBY Best Buy Co. Inc. Common Stock$99.83$7730% above15.7x43.1%5873
GME GameStop Corporation Common Stock$25.39$1934% above16.3x15.8%6959
FIVE Five Below Inc. Common Stock$225.87$11793% above20.1x28.2%6972
CASY Casey's General Stores Inc. Common Stock$713.65$288148% above34.4x20.0%5862
ULTA Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock$635.01$38963% above22.8x46.1%7871

Sector report card

Where TSCO ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 9, 2026
    Tractor Supply Announces Webcast of Third Quarter Earnings Conference Call
  • Business Wire•Oct 6, 2026
    Tractor Supply Makes Christmas Gifting Easy With Practical Gifts, Great Value and Unexpected Finds
  • Business Wire•Sep 30, 2026
    Petsense by Tractor Supply to Host Nationwide Fall Adoptathon, Connecting More Pets With Forever Homes
17 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 5
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
Oct 5
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 9
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-04
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR