4 models fit Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average. The price is above every model.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Large premium(i)Silver68
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionUlta Beauty Inc. Common Stock (ULTA)
Fair value (4 models)
$389
ACCE price target
$620
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST; previously $405 since 6 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 18 Oct 2026, 01:52 CEST; previously $576 since 25 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 18 Oct 2026, 16:04 CEST.
Price used: $624 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
60.6% above
-37.7% to fair value
ACCE score
71
out of 100
Analysts
68% buy
28 covering
P/E
22.8x
forward 19.5x
1-year return
+19.1%
Dividend yield
0.00%
Ulta Beauty Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Ulta Beauty runs a specialty retail chain of beauty stores and an e-commerce site that sell cosmetics, skincare, haircare and fragrance, alongside in-store salon services. Its advantage is scale and breadth: one of the largest beauty destinations in the US, with a loyalty program that gives it repeat-purchase data most rivals lack. Revenue growth of 8.9% is solid for a mature retailer, and the 43.1% gross margin and 12.5% operating margin show the mix is holding up. At 17.7x forward earnings the stock trades at a discount to its trailing 20.7x, which implies the market expects earnings to grow through the year. A return on equity of 46.1% points to a capital-light model, though it should be checked against leverage before it is taken at face value.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
moderate
Sequential revenue decline
QoQ revenue fell 4.1% despite YoY growth of 8.9%, suggesting recent momentum loss or seasonal weakness that warrants monitoring.
moderate
Insider selling without offsetting buys
Last 10 disclosures show $1.60M in sales and $0.00M in buys. No material concern alone, but worth tracking if pattern accelerates.
moderate
Elevated leverage for retail
Debt/Equity of 0.95 is reasonable but high for specialty retail. Combined with cyclical sector exposure, limits financial flexibility in downturns.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-07-31 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Ulta generates exceptional returns on capital, with ROE of 46.1% and ROIC of 33.0%, showing efficient deployment of shareholder money.
The company is aggressively returning cash to shareholders through buybacks, reducing share count by 5.1% last year while generating $914M in free cash flow.
Consensus analysts rate 68% of coverage as Buy or Strong Buy, with a mean price target 10.7% above current levels.
Why it could disappoint
The stock trades at 20.8x trailing P/E with consensus fair value 29.0% below the current share price of $570.37.
Revenue growth has slowed to 8.9% year over year, below the 6.7% five-year average, signaling deceleration in the core business.
At current valuation, the stock implies only 6.5% perpetual cash flow growth, below historical trends and vulnerable to multiple compression.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Dec 3, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where ULTA's valuation models land
Price
$624.46
Model fair value
$389
Model range
$194 to $523
Fair value $389
Price $624
The price is above the whole model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores