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WMS

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. Common Stock (WMS) fair value

Industrials · Building Products & Equipment · NYSE · United States
$130.40-0.40%
Market cap $9.8BNext earnings 2026-11-05Updated Oct 24, 2026
Add earnings to calendarGoogle
Our verdict
Trades 23% above our fair value
Price
$130.40
Model fair valueConfidence: good
$106
Model range
$55.97 to $136
Fair value $106
Price $130
4 models fit Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. Common Stock and they partly agree: 2 of 4 land within 15% of the average.
Two or more of our models back this value.
Premium(i)
Valued as a mature, profitable company: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, Graham number, and Dividend discount.
ACCE opinionAdvanced Drainage Systems Inc. Common Stock (WMS)
Fair value (4 models)
$106
ACCE price target
$133
Rating
Overvalued
Horizon
12 months
Fair value published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST; previously $166 since 17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
ACCE price target published on 10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Rating published on 24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CEST.
Price used: $130 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: Discounted cash flow, P/E comparison, EV/EBITDA comparison, and Graham number.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Full methodology
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
Price vs fair value
23.5% above
-19.0% to fair value
ACCE score
64
out of 100
Analysts
100% buy
11 covering
P/E
22.2x
forward 17.7x
1-year return
-8.2%
Dividend yield
0.61%

Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. Common Stock in four questions

Plain answers, details below
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OverviewAsk ACCEValuationQualityAnalystsSmart MoneyCompareNews and Record

Overview

ACCE thesis

Advanced Drainage Systems makes corrugated high-density polyethylene pipe, stormwater chambers and retention products used in site drainage, mainly for residential and non-residential construction in North America. Its moat rests on scale in a heavy, low-value-per-mile product where freight economics favour the largest network of plants close to job sites, and on its StormTech chamber line, which is specified by engineers and gives it a position in municipal and commercial stormwater projects. Revenue growth of 20.6% is the number that matters, and it reflects acquisitions, pricing and share gains in a market where contractors are still replacing aging concrete and clay pipe. At a trailing P/E of 21.9 and a forward P/E of 20.8, the stock is not cheap, but a 26.4% ROE and a 26.3% operating margin suggest the premium is being earned rather than assumed. The open question for a deeper look is how much of the recent growth survives a normalising construction cycle and whether margins hold as resin costs and project timing move.

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 18, 2026
⚠ Investor warnings · 2 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
  • moderate
    Recent sequential revenue drop
    QoQ revenue fell 18.5% despite 20.6% YoY growth, which points to seasonality or a soft quarter worth checking against the next filing.
  • moderate
    Insider selling without buying
    Last 10 disclosed insider transactions total $15.53M in sales and $0.00M in buys, a one-directional pattern insiders have not offset.

AI research notes

AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 21, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
  • Revenue grew 20.6% year over year, well ahead of its 9.0% five-year average pace of growth.
  • Free cash flow over the last twelve months reached $569M, and the stock's free cash flow yield is 5.9%.
Why it could disappoint
  • Return on invested capital is 9.4%, which is modest next to a 26.4% return on equity, with debt at 0.93 times equity.
  • The price implies only 4.9% yearly cash flow growth over five years, while the 5.2% risk-free rate used in the DCF sets a high bar for returns.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.

Next results

Nov 5, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle

Walk me through this stock

Plain-English pros, cons, and what to watch. Pro feature.

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Valuation

INVESTOR
Where WMS's valuation models land
Price
$130.40
Model fair value
$106
Model range
$55.97 to $136
Fair value $106
Price $130
The price sits inside the model range.
Model
Fair value
Upside
Discounted cash flow
Dividend discount
EV/EBITDA comparison
Graham number
P/E comparison
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Quality

INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE

The full quality picture: a reason under every score, how the scores moved, and the conviction breakdown.

  • +A plain reason under every score
  • +Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores
  • +Score history: how each score moved over time

Analysts

Wall Street consensus

Bullish100% buy · 11 covering analysts
● Strong buy 9● Buy 2● Hold 0● Sell 0● Strong sell 0
Analyst intelligence INVESTOR FEATURE

The full analyst picture: the price-target distribution against the current price, forward consensus estimates, and how ACCE's own models compare.

  • +Price-target low / average / high vs the current price, with implied upside
  • +Forward revenue and EPS consensus by fiscal year
  • +ACCE fair-value models lined up against the Street

Smart Money

PRO

In one line

Trades are only made public after a delay. We show the delay so you know how old the news is.

Company insiders
No trades filed
Last 90 days
Congress
No trades filed
Last 180 days
Average delay
No trades filed
From trade to public filing
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Smart money tracking PRO FEATURE

Follow the informed money: 13F position changes, insider and Congress trades, and 13D activist filings.

  • +Quarter-over-quarter institutional position changes
  • +Every insider and Congress trade, with how late it was disclosed
  • +Active 13D activist filings and top holders

Compare

Where it sits vs peers

News and Record

Press releases mentioning this company

Recent performance

1 week
+1.7%
1 month
+0.5%
3 months
-8.1%
6 months
-14.2%
YTD
-10.0%
1 year
-8.2%

SEC filings

Recommendation history, last 12 months

DateTypeNewPreviousPrice
24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTFair value$106$166$130
24 Oct 2026, 17:04 CESTRatingOvervaluedfirst publication$130
17 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$166$164$128
12 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$164$197$126
10 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTACCE price target$133first publication$126
8 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$197$194$130
1 Oct 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$194$199$128
18 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$199$202$127
10 Sept 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$202$206$134
30 Aug 2026, 00:00 CESTFair value$206$214$137

This analysis is not personalised investment advice and does not take your situation, objectives or risk tolerance into account. ACCE Investments is not an authorised investment firm.

Investing in shares carries a risk of losing capital. The value of an investment can go down as well as up.

Valuation horizon: 12 months from the publication date.

Conflicts of interest. ACCE Investments is operated by Adrien Chantreuil, who may hold personal positions in the securities analysed. Positions are declared on each security. ACCE receives no payment from the companies analysed or from any intermediary for this analysis.

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Snapshot

Growth80Value63Quality80Momentum31Total64
Valuation
Trailing P/E
22.2x
Forward P/E
17.7x
PEG
1.18
P/B
5.25x
EV / Revenue
3.5x
Book value/sh
$25.12
Enterprise value
$11.4B
Profitability
ROE
26.4%
FCF yield
5.79%
ROIC
9.4%
Health and risk
Debt / equity
0.93
Dividend yield
0.61%
Beta
1.29

Price

-9.1% · 1Y

Ask anything about WMS

Answered from Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. Common Stock fundamentals + recent valuations. Every number shows its source and date.

This stock Peer Peer median weaker → stronger
P/Ebetter than 67% of peers
low 0.0x22.2xhigh 45.7x
ROEbetter than 50% of peers
low -9%26%high 72%
Div yieldbetter than 17% of peers
low 0.0%0.6%high 2.7%

Peers

Prices Oct 23, 2026
CompanyPriceFair valuevs fair valueP/EROEQualityScore
WMS Advanced Drainage Systems Inc. Common Stock$130.40$10623% above22.2x26.4%8064
OC Owens Corning Inc Common Stock New$114.23$14923% below--9.4%3840
NIBE-B.ST NIBE Industrier AB (publ)kr 44.44kr 2575% above33.9x8.5%5962
BEAN.SW BELIMO Holding AGCHF 762.00CHF 352116% above45.7x35.2%8960
SPXC SPX Technologies Inc. Common Stock$160.33$11341% above28.2x14.7%7659
LII Lennox International Inc. Common Stock$376.01$3801% below16.6x71.8%7149
AWI Armstrong World Industries Inc Common Stock$168.18$12634% above23.4x36.6%8561

Sector report card

Where WMS ranks against its sector peers on each metric.

Computing percentiles…
  • Business Wire•Oct 15, 2026
    Advanced Drainage Systems to Announce Second Quarter Fiscal Year 2027 Results on November 5, 2026
  • Business Wire•Oct 13, 2026
    PSP Capital Announces Sale of StormTrap to Advanced Drainage Systems
  • Business Wire•Oct 5, 2026
    Advanced Drainage Systems Announces Acquisition of StormTrap Investments LLC From PSP Capital
4 more press releases · full archive on Investor+.INVESTOR
40 filings
October 2026
Oct 5
8-KCurrent reportPeriod 2026-10-01
View on SEC →
September 2026
Sep 3
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
Sep 3
Form 4Insider transactionPeriod 2026-09-01
View on SEC →
37 more filings + AI summaries on Investor+.INVESTOR