Built from weaker models, sales multiples or analyst targets, so treat it as a rough guide.
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Valued as a REIT (property company): Price to FFO and EV/EBITDA comparison.
ACCE opinionWelltower Inc. Common Stock (WELL)
Fair value (2 models)
Not available
ACCE price target
$256
Rating
Not rated
Horizon
12 months
ACCE price target published on 17 Sept 2026, 00:00 CEST.
Price used: $237 at the close on 23 Oct 2026, 22:00 CEST.
Models: EV/EBITDA comparison and Price to FFO.
Fair value: the average of the applicable valuation models (discounted cash flow, multiples, residual income, dividend discount, shareholder yield), each run on the latest financial statements and the market price shown. Opinion columns (fair value, target, rating) are shown apart from the data. Full methodology: acceinvestments.com/data/how-we-value-stocks
Conflicts of interest: The author holds no personal position in this security. General statement
Produced by ACCE Investments (acceinvestments.com)
Data
ACCE score
65
out of 100
Analysts
82% buy
22 covering
P/E
106.5x
forward 78.1x
1-year return
+34.8%
Dividend yield
1.31%
Welltower Inc. Common Stock in four questions
Plain answers, details below
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Overview
ACCE thesis
Welltower owns and operates senior housing, medical office, and outpatient healthcare facilities across the US, generating rental income from operators and tenants. The company benefits from structural tailwinds: an aging population driving demand for senior care beds, long-term triple-net leases that shift operating risk to tenants, and a fragmented operator base that limits tenant bargaining power. Recent acquisitions and same-store NOI growth are driving near-term revenue expansion, though the forward PE of 70.9x reflects market pricing for sustained growth rather than a margin of safety. At current valuations, the thesis hinges on whether senior housing occupancy rates and operator profitability can sustain the rent growth embedded in the stock price, particularly if economic weakness pressures discretionary healthcare spending or operator leverage.
⚠ Investor warnings · 3 flagsAI-assisted·How I use AI
high
Valuation multiple compression
P/E 101.1 and forward P/E 70.9 are extreme for a REIT. EV/EBITDA 53.8 signals market pricing in very high growth or facing significant multiple contraction risk.
high
ACCE score deterioration
Score fell 5 points in 90 days (68 to 63). Valuation component collapsed to 15/100, indicating model sees stock trading well above fair value range midpoint.
moderate
Weak return on equity
ROE of 3.8% is poor for a company trading at 101x earnings. Suggests capital is not generating adequate returns despite high valuation.
AI research notes
AI-assisted·How I use AIWritten Oct 11, 2026 · figures from 2026-06-30 · prices to Oct 23, 2026
Why it could do well
Revenue is growing at 39.1% year over year, well above the 22.7% five-year average, showing accelerating momentum.
The company generates $2.8B in free cash flow with a conservative 0.41 debt-to-equity ratio, providing financial flexibility.
Analysts rate 82% of the stock as Buy or Strong Buy with a mean price target of $262.05, implying 16.2% upside.
Why it could disappoint
The trailing P/E of 101.1x and forward P/E of 70.9x are extraordinarily high for a real estate company.
Return on equity of 3.8% and return on invested capital of 1.3% are far too low to justify the valuation.
Share count diluted by 11.6% last year while free cash flow yield is only 1.7%, eroding per-share value creation.
Each chip shows the exact figure and where it comes from. A claim without a source is not published.
Next results
Oct 26, 2026
We update the fair value about 2 days after the results, once the new figures are filed.Add to calendarGoogle
Walk me through this stock
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Valuation
INVESTOR
Where WELL's valuation models land
Price
$237.32
Model fair valueConfidence: low
about $44.91
Model
Fair value
Upside
EV/EBITDA comparison
Price to FFO
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Quality
INVESTOR
Quality and conviction INVESTOR FEATURE
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+Conviction breakdown and growth / value / quality / momentum scores